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Over 1.5 Goals Tips

Games projected to produce at least two goals.

63 Over 1.5 Goals picks qualify across 7 leagues. The strongest is Over 1.5 goals in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 89%. Over the last 30 days 79.7% of our settled tips in this market won (47 won, 12 lost).

Today and tomorrow

Track record (last 30 days)

Market Tips Hit rate ROI Brier Log loss CLV
Over 1.5 Goals 47–12 79.7% – 0.330 0.526 –
Hit rate:
the share of settled tips that won (voids excluded).
ROI:
average profit per 1-unit stake if every tip had been backed at the best market price recorded when it was published.
Brier score:
how close our probabilities were to what happened, from 0 (perfect) to 1; lower is better.
Log loss:
like Brier, but punishes confident misses harder; lower is better.
CLV (closing line value):
how much better the price at publication was than the final pre-match price; positive means we beat the market. Shown when prices are available.

How the Over 1.5 Goals market works

An Over 1.5 Goals selection wins when the match produces two or more goals in total, whichever side scores them. A 1-1 draw, a 2-0 win or a 3-2 thriller all count; only 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 fall short. Because the line is low, the probability is usually high and the fair odds are short, so a single goalless or one-goal game is enough to lose.

Settlement uses the score at the end of normal time, including stoppage time. Goals in extra time or penalty shoot-outs do not count.

How we calculate the probability

Our goal model gives each team an expected goals figure from Elo ratings and recent attacking and defensive strength, adjusted for home advantage. A Poisson model with the Dixon-Coles correction turns those figures into a probability for every scoreline. Adding every scoreline with two or more goals gives our Over 1.5 number, and the same grid feeds our Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 figures, so the three lines always agree with each other.

Where bookmaker prices are available we remove their margin and blend them in as one input; the final probability is always our own. Fair odds are 1 divided by the probability: 80% becomes 1.25.

Reading our Over 1.5 tips

The engine only uses Over 1.5 as a headline pick when no other market stands out further from the league's usual rates, so the fixtures listed here tend to be matches where goals look likely but no bigger line has a clear edge.

Things to watch

Short prices hide real risk: at 80% one match in five still finishes with fewer than two goals. Combining several of these selections multiplies that risk quickly. Our numbers are estimates, not promises. Compare the bigger line on our Over 2.5 goals tips, read over/under goals explained or see how we predict.

Other markets

All of today's football predictions · Tomorrow · How we predict · Guides

Frequently asked questions

How are Over 1.5 Goals tips chosen?

Games projected to produce at least two goals. Picks come from our model and are listed by probability; the page never re-ranks them by hand.

What do the fair odds mean?

Fair odds are 1 divided by our probability. A bookmaker price below them includes a margin that works against you; above them, the model sees value.

What is the strongest Over 1.5 Goals pick right now?

Over 1.5 goals in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, rated at 89% with fair odds of 1.12.

Are these tips settled publicly?

Yes. Every tip is settled from the 90-minute score and listed on our public track record, won or lost.