Serie A WAT Matchday 7
Updated
Venezia FC host SSC Napoli in the Serie A on Saturday 17 October at 14:00 WAT. Venezia FC sit 20th on 0 points after 6 games, while Napoli are 8th on 10, 10 points ahead. Recent form (newest first): Venezia FC lost 1 of the last 1, Napoli won 1 of the last 1. Our model's headline view is Napoli to win at 66%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.6 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Napoli to win 66% · fair odds 1.53
Napoli to win
66% probability Fair odds 1.53
Our model rates SSC Napoli to win at 66%. Expected goals: Venezia FC 0.99 – 2.40 SSC Napoli (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour SSC Napoli (1399 vs 1647). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
over
95% probability Fair odds 1.05
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 95%. Expected goals: Venezia FC 0.99 – 2.40 SSC Napoli (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
under
80% probability Fair odds 1.26
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 80%. Expected goals: Venezia FC 0.99 – 2.40 SSC Napoli (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Draw or Napoli
88% probability Fair odds 1.14
Our model rates SSC Napoli or draw at 88%. Expected goals: Venezia FC 0.99 – 2.40 SSC Napoli (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour SSC Napoli (1399 vs 1647). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
84% probability Fair odds 1.19
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 84%. Expected goals: Venezia FC 0.99 – 2.40 SSC Napoli (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
70% probability Fair odds 1.42
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 70%. Expected goals: Venezia FC 0.99 – 2.40 SSC Napoli (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
61% probability Fair odds 1.64
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 61%. Expected goals: Venezia FC 0.99 – 2.40 SSC Napoli (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
57% probability Fair odds 1.74
Our model rates both teams scoring at 57%. Expected goals: Venezia FC 0.99 – 2.40 SSC Napoli (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Venezia FC vs Napoli is Napoli to win at an estimated 66%, which converts to fair odds of 1.53. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Venezia FC | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 8th |
| Points (played) | 0 (6) | 10 (6) |
| Goals scored per game | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 12% | 66% |
| Model expected total goals | 3.6 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 | D |
| 7 |
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 | D |
| 8 |
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 | W |
| 9 |
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 | L |
| 10 |
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 18 |
|
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 | L |
| 19 |
|
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 | L |
| 20 |
|
6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 | L |
No previous meetings on record.
Venezia FC vs Napoli head to head
Our model gives Venezia FC a 12% chance to win, the draw 22% and SSC Napoli 66%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 57%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 70%.
The most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 10%.
Venezia FC vs SSC Napoli kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:00 West Africa Time (13:00 UTC).
