Eredivisie WAT Matchday 9
Updated
FC Utrecht travel to face FC Twente '65 in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 18 October at 19:00 WAT. Twente sit 4th on 17 points after 8 games, while Utrecht are 13th on 8, 9 points behind. Recent form (newest first): Twente drew 1 of the last 1, Utrecht won 1 of the last 1. The selection our model rates most informative here is Twente to win (66%). The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 4.5 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Twente to win 66% · fair odds 1.52
Twente to win
66% probability Fair odds 1.52
Our model rates FC Twente '65 to win at 66%. Expected goals: FC Twente '65 3.12 – 1.20 FC Utrecht (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour FC Twente '65 (1646 vs 1564). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
over
96% probability Fair odds 1.04
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: FC Twente '65 3.12 – 1.20 FC Utrecht (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
under
71% probability Fair odds 1.40
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: FC Twente '65 3.12 – 1.20 FC Utrecht (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Twente or draw
86% probability Fair odds 1.16
Our model rates FC Twente '65 or draw at 86%. Expected goals: FC Twente '65 3.12 – 1.20 FC Utrecht (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour FC Twente '65 (1646 vs 1564). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
88% probability Fair odds 1.13
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 88%. Expected goals: FC Twente '65 3.12 – 1.20 FC Utrecht (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
82% probability Fair odds 1.21
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 82%. Expected goals: FC Twente '65 3.12 – 1.20 FC Utrecht (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 3.5 goals
50% probability Fair odds 1.99
Our model rates over 3.5 goals at 50%. Expected goals: FC Twente '65 3.12 – 1.20 FC Utrecht (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
62% probability Fair odds 1.61
Our model rates both teams scoring at 62%. Expected goals: FC Twente '65 3.12 – 1.20 FC Utrecht (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Twente vs Utrecht is Twente to win at an estimated 66%, which converts to fair odds of 1.52. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Twente | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 13th |
| Points (played) | 17 (8) | 8 (8) |
| Goals scored per game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.13 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 66% | 14% |
| Model expected total goals | 4.5 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
|
8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 | No recent games |
| 3 |
|
8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 | L |
| 4 |
|
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 | D |
| 5 |
|
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 | D |
| 6 |
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 | W |
| 11 |
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 | D |
| 12 |
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 | W |
| 13 |
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 | W |
| 14 |
|
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 | D |
| 15 |
|
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 | D |
No previous meetings on record.
Twente vs Utrecht head to head
Our model gives FC Twente '65 a 66% chance to win, the draw 20% and FC Utrecht 14%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 62%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 82%.
The most likely scoreline is 3-1 at 8%.
FC Twente '65 vs FC Utrecht kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 19:00 West Africa Time (18:00 UTC).
