Eredivisie WAT Matchday 9
Updated
The Eredivisie meeting between FC Groningen and AFC Ajax kicks off on Sunday 18 October at 15:45 WAT. Groningen sit 6th on 14 points after 8 games, while Ajax are 5th on 15, 1 point ahead. Recent form (newest first): Groningen won 1 of the last 1, Ajax drew 1 of the last 1. Headline pick: Over 2.5 goals, estimated at 83%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 4.6 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Over 2.5 goals 83% · fair odds 1.2
Ajax to win
45% probability Fair odds 2.23
Our model rates AFC Ajax to win at 45%. Expected goals: FC Groningen 2.19 – 2.25 AFC Ajax (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour AFC Ajax (1545 vs 1652). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
over
96% probability Fair odds 1.04
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: FC Groningen 2.19 – 2.25 AFC Ajax (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
under
70% probability Fair odds 1.43
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 70%. Expected goals: FC Groningen 2.19 – 2.25 AFC Ajax (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Groningen or Ajax
76% probability Fair odds 1.32
Our model rates FC Groningen or AFC Ajax at 76%. Expected goals: FC Groningen 2.19 – 2.25 AFC Ajax (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour AFC Ajax (1545 vs 1652). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
89% probability Fair odds 1.13
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 89%. Expected goals: FC Groningen 2.19 – 2.25 AFC Ajax (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
83% probability Fair odds 1.20
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 83%. Expected goals: FC Groningen 2.19 – 2.25 AFC Ajax (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 3.5 goals
51% probability Fair odds 1.97
Our model rates over 3.5 goals at 51%. Expected goals: FC Groningen 2.19 – 2.25 AFC Ajax (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
64% probability Fair odds 1.57
Our model rates both teams scoring at 64%. Expected goals: FC Groningen 2.19 – 2.25 AFC Ajax (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Groningen vs Ajax is Over 2.5 goals at an estimated 83%, which converts to fair odds of 1.2. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Groningen | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 5th |
| Points (played) | 14 (8) | 15 (8) |
| Goals scored per game | 2.50 | 2.75 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 31% | 45% |
| Model expected total goals | 4.6 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
|
8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 | L |
| 4 |
|
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 | D |
| 5 |
|
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 | D |
| 6 |
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 | W |
| 7 |
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 | D |
| 8 |
|
8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 | D |
No previous meetings on record.
Groningen vs Ajax head to head
Our model gives FC Groningen a 31% chance to win, the draw 24% and AFC Ajax 45%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 64%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 83%.
The most likely scoreline is 2-2 at 7%.
FC Groningen vs AFC Ajax kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:45 West Africa Time (14:45 UTC).
