Home
Leagues
La Liga
Real Madrid vs Sevilla FC

Real Madrid CF vs Sevilla FC prediction, odds and stats

La Liga Sun 18 Oct 2026 20:00 WAT Matchday 9

Updated 17 Oct 2026, 11:25 WAT

The La Liga meeting between Real Madrid CF and Sevilla FC kicks off on Sunday 18 October at 20:00 WAT. Real Madrid sit 4th on 18 points after 8 games, while Sevilla FC are 5th on 14, 4 points behind. Recent form (newest first): Real Madrid won 1 of the last 1, Sevilla FC drew 1 of the last 1. Headline pick: Real Madrid to win, estimated at 81%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.7 goals in total.

Real Madrid

vs 20:00

Sevilla FC

Our headline pick

Real Madrid to win

Probability: 81%
Fair odds: 1.23
Confidence: Confidence: High

Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.

Match result probabilities

Real MadridDrawSevilla FC

Markets

Our probabilities by market for Real Madrid vs Sevilla FC
Market	Probabilities	Our pick
Match result	Real Madrid 81.5% Draw 13.8% Sevilla FC 4.7%	Real Madrid to win 81% · fair odds 1.23 Confidence: High Tip
Over/Under 0.5 goals	over 95.4% under 4.6%	over 95% · fair odds 1.05 Confidence: High
Over/Under 4.5 goals	under 79.9% over 20.2%	under 80% · fair odds 1.25 Confidence: High Tip
Double chance	1X 90.0% 12 86.2% X2 18.5%	Real Madrid or draw 90% · fair odds 1.11 Confidence: High Tip
Over/Under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 83.8% Under 1.5 16.2%	Over 1.5 goals 84% · fair odds 1.19 Confidence: High Tip
Over/Under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 70.8% Under 2.5 29.3%	Over 2.5 goals 71% · fair odds 1.41 Confidence: High Tip
Over/Under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 60.9% Over 3.5 39.1%	Under 3.5 goals 61% · fair odds 1.64 Confidence: High
Both teams to score	Yes 60.3% No 39.7%	Both teams to score: Yes 60% · fair odds 1.66 Confidence: Medium Tip
Correct score (top 3)	2-1 9.7% 1-1 9.2% 2-0 9.2%

Why the model leans this way, market by market

Match result: Our model rates Real Madrid CF to win at 81%. Expected goals: Real Madrid CF 2.29 – 1.06 Sevilla FC (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Real Madrid CF (1805 vs 1548). The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
Over/Under 0.5 goals: Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 95%. Expected goals: Real Madrid CF 2.29 – 1.06 Sevilla FC (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 4.5 goals: Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 80%. Expected goals: Real Madrid CF 2.29 – 1.06 Sevilla FC (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Double chance: Our model rates Real Madrid CF or draw at 90%. Expected goals: Real Madrid CF 2.29 – 1.06 Sevilla FC (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Real Madrid CF (1805 vs 1548). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 1.5 goals: Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 84%. Expected goals: Real Madrid CF 2.29 – 1.06 Sevilla FC (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: Real Madrid CF 2.29 – 1.06 Sevilla FC (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. The betting market view is broadly in line with our numbers.
Over/Under 3.5 goals: Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 61%. Expected goals: Real Madrid CF 2.29 – 1.06 Sevilla FC (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. The betting market view is broadly in line with our numbers.
Both teams to score: Our model rates both teams scoring at 60%. Expected goals: Real Madrid CF 2.29 – 1.06 Sevilla FC (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.

Our reasoning

Our model's headline view on Real Madrid vs Sevilla FC is Real Madrid to win at an estimated 81%, which converts to fair odds of 1.23. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.

Key stats

Key stats for Real Madrid vs Sevilla FC
Stat	Real Madrid	Sevilla FC
League position	4th	5th
Points (played)	18 (8)	14 (8)
Goals scored per game	2.38	1.63
Goals conceded per game	1.00	1.50
Home / away record (recent)	Home: W1 D0 L0	Away: W0 D1 L0
Model win probability	81%	5%
Model expected total goals	3.7	match total

Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.

Form (last five, newest first)

Real Madrid

Sevilla FC

La Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
2	Atleti	8	6	1	1	+10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	+5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	+11	18
5	Sevilla FC	8	4	2	2	+1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alavés	8	3	2	3	+4	11

Full table

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla FC head to head

Related matches

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Real Madrid CF vs Sevilla FC?

Our model gives Real Madrid CF a 81% chance to win, the draw 14% and Sevilla FC 5%. Predictions are not guarantees.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid CF vs Sevilla FC?

Our model puts both teams scoring at 60%.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Madrid CF vs Sevilla FC?

Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 71%.

What is the most likely score in Real Madrid CF vs Sevilla FC?

The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%.

When does Real Madrid CF vs Sevilla FC kick off?

Real Madrid CF vs Sevilla FC kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time (19:00 UTC).