Championship WAT Matchday 11
Updated
The Championship meeting between Birmingham City FC and Queens Park Rangers FC kicks off on Saturday 17 October at 15:00 WAT. Birmingham sit 5th on 17 points after 10 games, while QPR are 6th on 17, level on points. Recent form (newest first): Birmingham won 2 of the last 2, QPR won 1 of the last 1. Headline pick: Birmingham or draw, estimated at 75%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 2.6 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Birmingham or draw 75% · fair odds 1.33
Birmingham to win
47% probability Fair odds 2.14
Our model rates Birmingham City FC to win at 47%. Expected goals: Birmingham City FC 1.47 – 1.11 Queens Park Rangers FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Birmingham City FC (1484 vs 1456). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
over
93% probability Fair odds 1.08
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 93%. Expected goals: Birmingham City FC 1.47 – 1.11 Queens Park Rangers FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
under
88% probability Fair odds 1.14
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 88%. Expected goals: Birmingham City FC 1.47 – 1.11 Queens Park Rangers FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Birmingham or draw
75% probability Fair odds 1.33
Our model rates Birmingham City FC or draw at 75%. Expected goals: Birmingham City FC 1.47 – 1.11 Queens Park Rangers FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Birmingham City FC (1484 vs 1456). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
75% probability Fair odds 1.33
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 75%. Expected goals: Birmingham City FC 1.47 – 1.11 Queens Park Rangers FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 2.5 goals
53% probability Fair odds 1.89
Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 53%. Expected goals: Birmingham City FC 1.47 – 1.11 Queens Park Rangers FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
73% probability Fair odds 1.37
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 73%. Expected goals: Birmingham City FC 1.47 – 1.11 Queens Park Rangers FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
55% probability Fair odds 1.83
Our model rates both teams scoring at 55%. Expected goals: Birmingham City FC 1.47 – 1.11 Queens Park Rangers FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Birmingham vs QPR is Birmingham or draw at an estimated 75%, which converts to fair odds of 1.33. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Birmingham | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 6th |
| Points (played) | 17 (10) | 17 (10) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.70 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | – |
| Model win probability | 47% | 25% |
| Model expected total goals | 2.6 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
|
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +11 | 20 | W W |
| 4 |
|
10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 19 | W |
| 5 |
|
10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 | W W |
| 6 |
|
10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 | W |
| 7 |
|
10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 17 | W L |
| 8 |
|
10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 16 | L W |
No previous meetings on record.
Birmingham vs QPR head to head
Our model gives Birmingham City FC a 47% chance to win, the draw 28% and Queens Park Rangers FC 25%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 55%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 47%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%.
Birmingham City FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 West Africa Time (14:00 UTC).