Championship WAT Matchday 11
Updated
The Championship meeting between Wrexham AFC and Preston North End FC kicks off on Saturday 17 October at 15:00 WAT. Wrexham sit 17th on 11 points after 10 games, while Preston NE are 24th on 4, 7 points behind. Recent form (newest first): Wrexham drew 1, lost 1 of the last 2, Preston NE lost 2 of the last 2. Headline pick: Wrexham to win, estimated at 56%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 2.7 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Wrexham to win 56% · fair odds 1.79
Wrexham to win
56% probability Fair odds 1.79
Our model rates Wrexham AFC to win at 56%. Expected goals: Wrexham AFC 1.64 – 1.01 Preston North End FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Wrexham AFC (1481 vs 1373). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
over
93% probability Fair odds 1.08
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 93%. Expected goals: Wrexham AFC 1.64 – 1.01 Preston North End FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
under
87% probability Fair odds 1.15
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 87%. Expected goals: Wrexham AFC 1.64 – 1.01 Preston North End FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Wrexham or draw
82% probability Fair odds 1.22
Our model rates Wrexham AFC or draw at 82%. Expected goals: Wrexham AFC 1.64 – 1.01 Preston North End FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Wrexham AFC (1481 vs 1373). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
76% probability Fair odds 1.32
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: Wrexham AFC 1.64 – 1.01 Preston North End FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 2.5 goals
50% probability Fair odds 1.99
Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 50%. Expected goals: Wrexham AFC 1.64 – 1.01 Preston North End FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
73% probability Fair odds 1.38
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 73%. Expected goals: Wrexham AFC 1.64 – 1.01 Preston North End FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
54% probability Fair odds 1.85
Our model rates both teams scoring at 54%. Expected goals: Wrexham AFC 1.64 – 1.01 Preston North End FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Wrexham vs Preston NE is Wrexham to win at an estimated 56%, which converts to fair odds of 1.79. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Wrexham | Preston NE |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 24th |
| Points (played) | 11 (10) | 4 (10) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D0 L1 | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 18% |
| Model expected total goals | 2.7 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 | L W |
| 16 |
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 | W L |
| 17 |
|
10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 | L D |
| 18 |
|
10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 | L L |
| 19 |
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 10 | W L |
| 22 |
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 | L L |
| 23 |
|
10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 | L D |
| 24 |
|
10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 | L L |
No previous meetings on record.
Wrexham vs Preston NE head to head
Our model gives Wrexham AFC a 56% chance to win, the draw 26% and Preston North End FC 18%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 54%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 50%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%.
Wrexham AFC vs Preston North End FC kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 West Africa Time (14:00 UTC).