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Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim prediction, odds and stats

Bundesliga WAT Matchday 6

Updated WAT

The Bundesliga meeting between Borussia Mönchengladbach and TSG 1899 Hoffenheim kicks off on Sunday 18 October at 16:30 WAT. M'gladbach sit 18th on 0 points after 5 games, while Hoffenheim are 17th on 3, 3 points ahead. Recent form (newest first): M'gladbach lost 1 of the last 1, Hoffenheim lost 1 of the last 1. Headline pick: Hoffenheim to win, estimated at 47%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.7 goals in total.

Borussia Mönchengladbach logo M'gladbach
vs
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim logo Hoffenheim

Our headline pick

Hoffenheim to win

Probability
47%
Fair odds
2.12
Confidence
Confidence: Low

Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.

Match result probabilities

M'gladbachDrawHoffenheim

Markets

Our probabilities by market for M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim
MarketProbabilitiesOur pick
Match result
  • Hoffenheim 47.3%
  • M'gladbach 29.5%
  • Draw 23.3%
 Hoffenheim to win 47% · fair odds 2.12 Confidence: Low
Over/Under 0.5 goals
  • over 96.0%
  • under 4.0%
 over 96% · fair odds 1.04 Confidence: High
Over/Under 4.5 goals
  • under 68.7%
  • over 31.3%
 under 69% · fair odds 1.46 Confidence: High
Double chance
  • 12 76.7%
  • X2 70.6%
  • 1X 52.7%
 M'gladbach or Hoffenheim 77% · fair odds 1.30 Confidence: High Tip
Over/Under 1.5 goals
  • Over 1.5 89.1%
  • Under 1.5 10.9%
 Over 1.5 goals 89% · fair odds 1.12 Confidence: High Tip
Over/Under 2.5 goals
  • Over 2.5 70.8%
  • Under 2.5 29.3%
 Over 2.5 goals 71% · fair odds 1.41 Confidence: High Tip
Over/Under 3.5 goals
  • Under 3.5 50.7%
  • Over 3.5 49.3%
 Under 3.5 goals 51% · fair odds 1.97 Confidence: Low
Both teams to score
  • Yes 63.9%
  • No 36.1%
 Both teams to score: Yes 64% · fair odds 1.57 Confidence: High Tip
Correct score (top 3)
  1. 2-2 7.1%
  2. 1-2 6.5%
  3. 2-1 6.1%
Why the model leans this way, market by market
Match result
Our model rates TSG 1899 Hoffenheim to win at 47%. Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.18 – 2.33 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (1509 vs 1581). The betting market view is broadly in line with our numbers.
Over/Under 0.5 goals
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.18 – 2.33 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 4.5 goals
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 69%. Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.18 – 2.33 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Double chance
Our model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach or TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 77%. Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.18 – 2.33 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (1509 vs 1581). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 1.5 goals
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 89%. Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.18 – 2.33 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.18 – 2.33 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. The betting market is less positive on this outcome than our goals model.
Over/Under 3.5 goals
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 51%. Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.18 – 2.33 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
Both teams to score
Our model rates both teams scoring at 64%. Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.18 – 2.33 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (most likely score 2-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.

Our reasoning

Our model's headline view on M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim is Hoffenheim to win at an estimated 47%, which converts to fair odds of 2.12. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.

Key stats

Key stats for M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim
Stat M'gladbach Hoffenheim
League position 18th 17th
Points (played) 0 (5) 3 (5)
Goals scored per game 1.40 1.80
Goals conceded per game 3.60 2.60
Home / away record (recent) – –
Model win probability 29% 47%
Model expected total goals 3.7 match total

Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.

Form (last five, newest first)

M'gladbach
Hoffenheim

Bundesliga table

# Team P GD Pts
15 SC Paderborn 07 logo SC Paderborn 5 -4 4
16 1. FC Union Berlin logo Union Berlin 5 -12 4
17 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim logo Hoffenheim 5 -4 3
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach logo M'gladbach 5 -11 0

Full table

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim head to head

Related matches

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 29% chance to win, the draw 23% and TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 47%. Predictions are not guarantees.

Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 64%.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 71%.

What is the most likely score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
The most likely scoreline is 2-2 at 7%.

When does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:30 West Africa Time (15:30 UTC).

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