La Liga WAT Matchday 9
Updated
Málaga CF host Real Sociedad de Fútbol in the La Liga on Sunday 18 October at 17:30 WAT. Málaga sit 20th on 4 points after 8 games, while Real Sociedad are 6th on 13, 9 points ahead. Our model's headline view is Over 1.5 goals at 79%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 2.9 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Over 1.5 goals 79% · fair odds 1.27
Real Sociedad to win
39% probability Fair odds 2.58
Our model rates Real Sociedad de Fútbol to win at 39%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Real Sociedad de Fútbol (1474 vs 1511). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
over
94% probability Fair odds 1.06
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 94%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
under
85% probability Fair odds 1.17
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 85%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Málaga or Real Sociedad
71% probability Fair odds 1.40
Our model rates Málaga CF or Real Sociedad de Fútbol at 71%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Real Sociedad de Fútbol (1474 vs 1511). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
79% probability Fair odds 1.27
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 79%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
55% probability Fair odds 1.82
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 55%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
69% probability Fair odds 1.45
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 69%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
57% probability Fair odds 1.74
Our model rates both teams scoring at 57%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Málaga vs Real Sociedad is Over 1.5 goals at an estimated 79%, which converts to fair odds of 1.27. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Málaga | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 6th |
| Points (played) | 4 (8) | 13 (8) |
| Goals scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 32% | 39% |
| Model expected total goals | 2.9 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
|
8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 | W |
| 5 |
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 | D |
| 6 |
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 | W |
| 7 |
|
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 | L |
| 8 |
|
9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 | D L |
| 18 |
|
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 | D |
| 19 |
|
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 | D |
| 20 |
|
8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 | No recent games |
No previous meetings on record.
Málaga vs Real Sociedad head to head
Our model gives Málaga CF a 32% chance to win, the draw 29% and Real Sociedad de Fútbol 39%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 57%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 55%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%.
Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 17:30 West Africa Time (16:30 UTC).
