Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol prediction, odds and stats
La Liga WAT Matchday 9
Updated WAT
Málaga CF host Real Sociedad de Fútbol in the La Liga on Sunday 18 October at 17:30 WAT. Málaga sit 20th on 4 points after 8 games, while Real Sociedad are 6th on 13, 9 points ahead. Our model's headline view is Over 1.5 goals at 79%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 2.9 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Over 1.5 goals
- Probability
- 79%
- Fair odds
- 1.27
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Real Sociedad to win 39% · fair odds 2.58 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 94% · fair odds 1.06 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 85% · fair odds 1.17 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Málaga or Real Sociedad 71% · fair odds 1.40 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 79% · fair odds 1.27 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 55% · fair odds 1.82 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 69% · fair odds 1.45 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 57% · fair odds 1.74 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Real Sociedad de Fútbol to win at 39%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Real Sociedad de Fútbol (1474 vs 1511). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 94%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 85%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Málaga CF or Real Sociedad de Fútbol at 71%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Real Sociedad de Fútbol (1474 vs 1511). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 79%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 55%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 69%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 57%. Expected goals: Málaga CF 1.25 – 1.59 Real Sociedad de Fútbol (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Our model's headline view on Málaga vs Real Sociedad is Over 1.5 goals at an estimated 79%, which converts to fair odds of 1.27. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
Key stats
| Stat | Málaga | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 6th |
| Points (played) | 4 (8) | 13 (8) |
| Goals scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 32% | 39% |
| Model expected total goals | 2.9 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
|
8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 | |
| 5 |
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 | |
| 6 |
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 | |
| 7 |
|
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 | |
| 8 |
|
9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 | |
| 18 |
|
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 | |
| 19 |
|
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 | |
| 20 |
|
8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 | No recent games |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Málaga vs Real Sociedad head to head
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Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol?
Our model gives Málaga CF a 32% chance to win, the draw 29% and Real Sociedad de Fútbol 39%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Will both teams score in Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 57%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol?
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 55%.
What is the most likely score in Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol?
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%.
When does Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol kick off?
Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 17:30 West Africa Time (16:30 UTC).