Premier League WAT Matchday 7
Updated
The Premier League meeting between Brighton & Hove Albion FC and Crystal Palace FC kicks off on Sunday 18 October at 14:00 WAT. Brighton Hove sit 3rd on 13 points after 6 games, while Crystal Palace are 12th on 7, 6 points behind. Recent form (newest first): Brighton Hove won 1 of the last 1, Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 1. Headline pick: Brighton Hove to win, estimated at 75%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 4.6 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Brighton Hove to win 75% · fair odds 1.33
Brighton Hove to win
75% probability Fair odds 1.33
Our model rates Brighton & Hove Albion FC to win at 75%. Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3.37 – 1.02 Crystal Palace FC (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Brighton & Hove Albion FC (1644 vs 1541). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
over
96% probability Fair odds 1.04
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3.37 – 1.02 Crystal Palace FC (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
under
71% probability Fair odds 1.42
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3.37 – 1.02 Crystal Palace FC (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Brighton Hove or draw
90% probability Fair odds 1.11
Our model rates Brighton & Hove Albion FC or draw at 90%. Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3.37 – 1.02 Crystal Palace FC (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Brighton & Hove Albion FC (1644 vs 1541). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
89% probability Fair odds 1.13
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 89%. Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3.37 – 1.02 Crystal Palace FC (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
83% probability Fair odds 1.20
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 83%. Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3.37 – 1.02 Crystal Palace FC (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 3.5 goals
51% probability Fair odds 1.98
Our model rates over 3.5 goals at 51%. Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3.37 – 1.02 Crystal Palace FC (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
61% probability Fair odds 1.64
Our model rates both teams scoring at 61%. Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3.37 – 1.02 Crystal Palace FC (most likely score 3-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Brighton Hove vs Crystal Palace is Brighton Hove to win at an estimated 75%, which converts to fair odds of 1.33. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Brighton Hove | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 12th |
| Points (played) | 13 (6) | 7 (6) |
| Goals scored per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.83 | 2.00 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 75% | 8% |
| Model expected total goals | 4.6 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 | W |
| 2 |
|
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 | W |
| 3 |
|
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 | W |
| 4 |
|
6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 | D |
| 5 |
|
6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 | D |
| 10 |
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 | W |
| 11 |
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 | L |
| 12 |
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 | W |
| 13 |
|
6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 14 |
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 | W |
No previous meetings on record.
Brighton Hove vs Crystal Palace head to head
Our model gives Brighton & Hove Albion FC a 75% chance to win, the draw 17% and Crystal Palace FC 8%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 61%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 83%.
The most likely scoreline is 3-1 at 8%.
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Crystal Palace FC kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 West Africa Time (13:00 UTC).