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Leeds United vs Man United

Leeds United FC vs Manchester United FC prediction, odds and stats

Premier League Sun 18 Oct 2026 14:00 WAT Matchday 7

Updated 17 Oct 2026, 11:25 WAT

Manchester United FC travel to face Leeds United FC in the Premier League, kicking off Sunday 18 October at 14:00 WAT. Leeds United sit 8th on 9 points after 6 games, while Man United are 14th on 6, 3 points behind. Recent form (newest first): Leeds United lost 1 of the last 1, Man United drew 1 of the last 1. The selection our model rates most informative here is Over 1.5 goals (75%). The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.1 goals in total.

Leeds United

vs 14:00

Man United

Our headline pick

Over 1.5 goals

Probability: 75%
Fair odds: 1.33
Confidence: Confidence: High

Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.

Match result probabilities

Leeds UnitedDrawMan United

Markets

Our probabilities by market for Leeds United vs Man United
Market	Probabilities	Our pick
Match result	Leeds United 41.7% Man United 32.4% Draw 26.0%	Leeds United to win 42% · fair odds 2.40 Confidence: Low
Over/Under 0.5 goals	over 92.8% under 7.3%	over 93% · fair odds 1.08 Confidence: High
Over/Under 4.5 goals	under 87.5% over 12.5%	under 88% · fair odds 1.14 Confidence: High Tip
Double chance	12 74.0% 1X 67.6% X2 58.3%	Leeds United or Man United 74% · fair odds 1.35 Confidence: High Tip
Over/Under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 75.3% Under 1.5 24.7%	Over 1.5 goals 75% · fair odds 1.33 Confidence: High Tip
Over/Under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 59.1% Under 2.5 40.9%	Over 2.5 goals 59% · fair odds 1.69 Confidence: Medium Tip
Over/Under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 72.8% Over 3.5 27.2%	Under 3.5 goals 73% · fair odds 1.37 Confidence: High Tip
Both teams to score	Yes 54.0% No 46.0%	Both teams to score: Yes 54% · fair odds 1.85 Confidence: Medium
Correct score (top 3)	1-1 13.1% 1-0 10.6% 2-1 9.3%

Why the model leans this way, market by market

Match result: Our model rates Leeds United FC to win at 42%. Expected goals: Leeds United FC 1.54 – 1.05 Manchester United FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1669 vs 1680). The betting market is less positive on this outcome than our goals model.
Over/Under 0.5 goals: Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 93%. Expected goals: Leeds United FC 1.54 – 1.05 Manchester United FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 4.5 goals: Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 88%. Expected goals: Leeds United FC 1.54 – 1.05 Manchester United FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Double chance: Our model rates Leeds United FC or Manchester United FC at 74%. Expected goals: Leeds United FC 1.54 – 1.05 Manchester United FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1669 vs 1680). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 1.5 goals: Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 75%. Expected goals: Leeds United FC 1.54 – 1.05 Manchester United FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 59%. Expected goals: Leeds United FC 1.54 – 1.05 Manchester United FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
Over/Under 3.5 goals: Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 73%. Expected goals: Leeds United FC 1.54 – 1.05 Manchester United FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Our model rates both teams scoring at 54%. Expected goals: Leeds United FC 1.54 – 1.05 Manchester United FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.

Our reasoning

Our model's headline view on Leeds United vs Man United is Over 1.5 goals at an estimated 75%, which converts to fair odds of 1.33. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.

Key stats

Key stats for Leeds United vs Man United
Stat	Leeds United	Man United
League position	8th	14th
Points (played)	9 (6)	6 (6)
Goals scored per game	1.33	1.50
Goals conceded per game	0.83	1.50
Home / away record (recent)	–	–
Model win probability	42%	32%
Model expected total goals	3.1	match total

Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.

Form (last five, newest first)

Leeds United

Man United

Premier League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
6	Brentford	7	2	4	1	+5	10
7	Everton	7	2	4	1	+1	10
8	Leeds United	6	2	3	1	+3	9
9	Hull City	7	2	3	2	+1	9
10	Ipswich Town	7	3	0	4	-4	9
12	Aston Villa	7	2	2	3	-4	8
13	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Man United	6	1	3	2	0	6
15	Coventry City	6	2	0	4	-6	6
16	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-3	5