Ligue 1 WAT Matchday 7
Updated
Stade Brestois 29 travel to face Lille OSC in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 17 October at 19:45 WAT. Lille sit 2nd on 13 points after 6 games, while Brest are 7th on 8, 5 points behind. Recent form (newest first): Lille won 1 of the last 1, Brest won 1 of the last 1. The selection our model rates most informative here is Lille to win (53%). The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 2.7 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Lille to win 53% · fair odds 1.88
Lille to win
53% probability Fair odds 1.88
Our model rates Lille OSC to win at 53%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.62 – 1.09 Stade Brestois 29 (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Lille OSC (1613 vs 1499). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Lille or draw
79% probability Fair odds 1.27
Our model rates Lille OSC or draw at 79%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.62 – 1.09 Stade Brestois 29 (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Lille OSC (1613 vs 1499). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
76% probability Fair odds 1.31
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.62 – 1.09 Stade Brestois 29 (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
51% probability Fair odds 1.96
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 51%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.62 – 1.09 Stade Brestois 29 (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
71% probability Fair odds 1.41
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.62 – 1.09 Stade Brestois 29 (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
54% probability Fair odds 1.84
Our model rates both teams scoring at 54%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.62 – 1.09 Stade Brestois 29 (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Lille vs Brest is Lille to win at an estimated 53%, which converts to fair odds of 1.88. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Lille | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 7th |
| Points (played) | 13 (6) | 8 (6) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | – |
| Model win probability | 53% | 21% |
| Model expected total goals | 2.7 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 | D |
| 2 |
|
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 | W |
| 3 |
|
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 | W |
| 4 |
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 | No recent games |
| 5 |
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 | L |
| 6 |
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 | W |
| 7 |
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 | W |
| 8 |
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 9 |
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 | W |
No previous meetings on record.
Our model gives Lille OSC a 53% chance to win, the draw 26% and Stade Brestois 29 21%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 54%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 51%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%.
Lille OSC vs Stade Brestois 29 kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 19:45 West Africa Time (18:45 UTC).
