Championship WAT Matchday 11
Our headline pick
Over 1.5 goals 79% · fair odds 1.26
Stoke City FC to win
40% probability Fair odds 2.47
Our model rates Stoke City FC to win at 40%. Expected goals: Derby County FC 1.17 – 1.73 Stoke City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1447 vs 1424). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Derby County FC or Stoke City FC
74% probability Fair odds 1.35
Our model rates Derby County FC or Stoke City FC at 74%. Expected goals: Derby County FC 1.17 – 1.73 Stoke City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1447 vs 1424). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
79% probability Fair odds 1.26
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 79%. Expected goals: Derby County FC 1.17 – 1.73 Stoke City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
55% probability Fair odds 1.81
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 55%. Expected goals: Derby County FC 1.17 – 1.73 Stoke City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
67% probability Fair odds 1.49
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 67%. Expected goals: Derby County FC 1.17 – 1.73 Stoke City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
58% probability Fair odds 1.74
Our model rates both teams scoring at 58%. Expected goals: Derby County FC 1.17 – 1.73 Stoke City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model rates Stoke City FC to win at 40%. Expected goals: Derby County FC 1.17 – 1.73 Stoke City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1447 vs 1424). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Probabilities are model estimates. Predictions are not guarantees; please gamble responsibly.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 
West Bromwich Albion FC |
10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 17 | W L |
| 6 | 
West Ham United FC |
9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 | No recent games |
| 7 | 
Stoke City FC |
10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 16 | L W |
| 8 | 
Blackburn Rovers FC |
10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 | W W |
| 9 | 
Queens Park Rangers FC |
9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 | No recent games |
| 21 | 
Burnley FC |
10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 | D W |
| 22 | 
Watford FC |
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 | L L |
| 23 | 
Derby County FC |
9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 | D |
| 24 | 
Preston North End FC |
10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 | L L |
No previous meetings on record.
Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC head to head
Our model gives Derby County FC a 34% chance to win, the draw 26% and Stoke City FC 40%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 58%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 55%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%.
Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 West Africa Time (14:00 UTC).