Juventus FC vs SS Lazio prediction, odds and stats
Serie A WAT Matchday 7
Updated WAT
Juventus FC host SS Lazio in the Serie A on Sunday 18 October at 19:45 WAT. Juventus sit 7th on 11 points after 6 games, while Lazio are 2nd on 16, 5 points ahead. Recent form (newest first): Juventus drew 1 of the last 1, Lazio won 1 of the last 1. Our model's headline view is Juventus to win at 57%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 2.7 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Juventus to win
- Probability
- 57%
- Fair odds
- 1.75
- Confidence
- Confidence: Medium
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
JuventusDrawLazio
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Juventus to win 57% · fair odds 1.75 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 92% · fair odds 1.08 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 89% · fair odds 1.13 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Juventus or draw 82% · fair odds 1.21 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 73% · fair odds 1.37 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Under 2.5 goals 50% · fair odds 1.99 Confidence: Medium |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 76% · fair odds 1.32 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 52% · fair odds 1.93 Confidence: Medium |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Juventus FC to win at 57%. Expected goals: Juventus FC 1.13 – 1.26 SS Lazio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Juventus FC (1720 vs 1671). The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 92%. Expected goals: Juventus FC 1.13 – 1.26 SS Lazio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 89%. Expected goals: Juventus FC 1.13 – 1.26 SS Lazio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Juventus FC or draw at 82%. Expected goals: Juventus FC 1.13 – 1.26 SS Lazio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Juventus FC (1720 vs 1671). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 73%. Expected goals: Juventus FC 1.13 – 1.26 SS Lazio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 50%. Expected goals: Juventus FC 1.13 – 1.26 SS Lazio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. The betting market is less positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: Juventus FC 1.13 – 1.26 SS Lazio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 52%. Expected goals: Juventus FC 1.13 – 1.26 SS Lazio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Our model's headline view on Juventus vs Lazio is Juventus to win at an estimated 57%, which converts to fair odds of 1.75. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
Key stats
| Stat | Juventus | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 2nd |
| Points (played) | 11 (6) | 16 (6) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 57% | 18% |
| Model expected total goals | 2.7 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 | |
| 2 |
|
6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 | |
| 3 |
|
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 | |
| 4 |
|
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 13 | |
| 5 |
|
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 | |
| 6 |
|
6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 | |
| 7 |
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 | |
| 8 |
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 | |
| 9 |
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Juventus vs Lazio head to head
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Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Juventus FC vs SS Lazio?
Our model gives Juventus FC a 57% chance to win, the draw 25% and SS Lazio 18%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Will both teams score in Juventus FC vs SS Lazio?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 52%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Juventus FC vs SS Lazio?
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 50%.
What is the most likely score in Juventus FC vs SS Lazio?
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%.
When does Juventus FC vs SS Lazio kick off?
Juventus FC vs SS Lazio kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 19:45 West Africa Time (18:45 UTC).