Bundesliga WAT Matchday 6
Updated
Borussia Dortmund travel to face 1. FC Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 17 October at 14:30 WAT. Union Berlin sit 16th on 4 points after 5 games, while Dortmund are 2nd on 13, 9 points ahead. Recent form (newest first): Union Berlin won 1 of the last 1, Dortmund lost 1 of the last 1. The selection our model rates most informative here is Dortmund to win (67%). The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.5 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Dortmund to win 67% · fair odds 1.48
Dortmund to win
67% probability Fair odds 1.48
Our model rates Borussia Dortmund to win at 67%. Expected goals: 1. FC Union Berlin 0.95 – 2.49 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Borussia Dortmund (1442 vs 1690). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Draw or Dortmund
87% probability Fair odds 1.14
Our model rates Borussia Dortmund or draw at 87%. Expected goals: 1. FC Union Berlin 0.95 – 2.49 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Borussia Dortmund (1442 vs 1690). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
86% probability Fair odds 1.16
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 86%. Expected goals: 1. FC Union Berlin 0.95 – 2.49 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
67% probability Fair odds 1.49
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 67%. Expected goals: 1. FC Union Berlin 0.95 – 2.49 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
55% probability Fair odds 1.82
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 55%. Expected goals: 1. FC Union Berlin 0.95 – 2.49 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
57% probability Fair odds 1.75
Our model rates both teams scoring at 57%. Expected goals: 1. FC Union Berlin 0.95 – 2.49 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 0-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Union Berlin vs Dortmund is Dortmund to win at an estimated 67%, which converts to fair odds of 1.48. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Union Berlin | Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 2nd |
| Points (played) | 4 (5) | 13 (5) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded per game | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | – |
| Model win probability | 13% | 67% |
| Model expected total goals | 3.5 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 | W |
| 2 |
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 | No recent games |
| 3 |
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 | D |
| 4 |
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 | W |
| 14 |
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 | L |
| 15 |
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 | L |
| 16 |
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 | W |
| 17 |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 | L |
| 18 |
|
5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 | L |
No previous meetings on record.
Union Berlin vs Dortmund head to head
Our model gives 1. FC Union Berlin a 13% chance to win, the draw 20% and Borussia Dortmund 67%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 57%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 67%.
The most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 10%.
1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:30 West Africa Time (13:30 UTC).