Draws Tips
Evenly matched fixtures with an above-average draw probability.
No Draws picks qualify right now: the model only lists a match here when this market stands out. Over the last 30 days 88.2% of our settled tips in this market won (15 won, 2 lost).
Today and tomorrow
No Draws tips qualify for today or tomorrow. Our model rarely rates a draw as the single most likely result.
Highest draw probabilities
Not tips: the matches where our model rates the draw most likely.
Track record (last 30 days)
| Market | Tips | Hit rate | ROI | Brier | Log loss | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draws | 15–2 | 88.2% | – | 0.555 | 0.940 | – |
- Hit rate:
- the share of settled tips that won (voids excluded).
- ROI:
- average profit per 1-unit stake if every tip had been backed at the best market price recorded when it was published.
- Brier score:
- how close our probabilities were to what happened, from 0 (perfect) to 1; lower is better.
- Log loss:
- like Brier, but punishes confident misses harder; lower is better.
- CLV (closing line value):
- how much better the price at publication was than the final pre-match price; positive means we beat the market. Shown when prices are available.
How the Draw market works
The draw, shown as "X" in the 1X2 market, wins when both teams finish level on goals: 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 or any other matching score. Draws are the hardest result for most punters to back because they feel unexciting, yet in many leagues roughly a quarter of matches end level, and the odds are usually higher than for either team to win.
The level score has to stand at the end of normal time, including stoppage time. In knockout football a draw after 90 minutes still wins this bet even if one side then goes through after extra time or on penalties.
How we calculate the probability
Predicting draws is where a basic Poisson model is weakest, because it tends to underrate low-scoring stalemates. Our engine uses the Dixon-Coles adjustment to correct exactly that. Starting from Elo ratings and each club's recent scoring and conceding record, the engine sets an expected goals figure for both teams and builds a full grid of scorelines. The draw probability is the sum of the diagonal: 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and so on.
This model view is blended with bookmaker 1X2 prices after the margin has been stripped out. Fair odds are 1 divided by the probability. A draw rated at 31% has fair odds of about 3.23.
Reading our Draw tips
- Draw probabilities rarely climb far above 35%, so a pick here usually means "more likely than normal", not "more likely than not".
- A match is listed when the draw is the engine's headline pick: the market with the largest positive deviation from that league's typical draw rate.
- Confidence goes from 1 to 5 and describes the strength of the signal behind the pick.
- Teams with little data are labelled "Limited data" and never tipped.
Evenly matched teams, low expected goals on both sides and defensive set-ups tend to push the draw rating up.
Things to watch
A single late goal settles the market, so draw picks lose often even when the reading is sound. The bookmaker margin is built into the draw price too, so offered odds are normally shorter than our fair odds. Every figure is an estimate. The guide to football odds shows how prices work, how we predict covers the model, and our double chance tips show picks that pair the draw with a team.
Read more: How to Read Football Odds and Implied Probability · Double Chance Explained: 1X, X2 and 12 Bets
Other markets
- Banker of the Day The single High-confidence tip our model rates most likely to land today.
- Both Teams To Score Matches where our model has a clear view on whether both sides score.
- Over 2.5 Goals Games projected to produce three or more goals.
- Over 1.5 Goals Games projected to produce at least two goals.
- Under 2.5 Goals Tight, low-scoring games projected to finish with two goals or fewer.
- Correct Score The most likely final scorelines from our goal model.
- Double Chance Two outcomes covered in one pick for lower-variance selections.
- Home Win Home sides our model rates as clear favourites.
- Away Win Away sides with the strongest projected edge on the road.
- Draws Evenly matched fixtures with an above-average draw probability.
- Accumulator A small daily selection of our strongest picks combined, built by the engine.
All of today's football predictions · Tomorrow · How we predict · Guides
Frequently asked questions
How are Draws tips chosen?
Evenly matched fixtures with an above-average draw probability. Picks come from our model and are listed by probability; the page never re-ranks them by hand.
What do the fair odds mean?
Fair odds are 1 divided by our probability. A bookmaker price below them includes a margin that works against you; above them, the model sees value.
Are these tips settled publicly?
Yes. Every tip is settled from the 90-minute score and listed on our public track record, won or lost.