Eredivisie WAT Matchday 9
Updated
PEC Zwolle host Go Ahead Eagles in the Eredivisie on Sunday 18 October at 11:15 WAT. Zwolle sit 16th on 4 points after 8 games, while Go Ahead are 8th on 11, 7 points ahead. Recent form (newest first): Zwolle lost 1 of the last 1, Go Ahead drew 1 of the last 1. Our model's headline view is Go Ahead to win at 57%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 4.4 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Go Ahead to win 57% · fair odds 1.76
Go Ahead to win
57% probability Fair odds 1.76
Our model rates Go Ahead Eagles to win at 57%. Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.34 – 2.90 Go Ahead Eagles (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Go Ahead Eagles (1433 vs 1521). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
over
96% probability Fair odds 1.04
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.34 – 2.90 Go Ahead Eagles (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
under
73% probability Fair odds 1.38
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 73%. Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.34 – 2.90 Go Ahead Eagles (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Draw or Go Ahead
80% probability Fair odds 1.25
Our model rates Go Ahead Eagles or draw at 80%. Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.34 – 2.90 Go Ahead Eagles (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Go Ahead Eagles (1433 vs 1521). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
88% probability Fair odds 1.13
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 88%. Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.34 – 2.90 Go Ahead Eagles (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
81% probability Fair odds 1.23
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 81%. Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.34 – 2.90 Go Ahead Eagles (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
50% probability Fair odds 2.00
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 50%. Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.34 – 2.90 Go Ahead Eagles (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
64% probability Fair odds 1.57
Our model rates both teams scoring at 64%. Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.34 – 2.90 Go Ahead Eagles (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Zwolle vs Go Ahead is Go Ahead to win at an estimated 57%, which converts to fair odds of 1.76. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Zwolle | Go Ahead |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 8th |
| Points (played) | 4 (8) | 11 (8) |
| Goals scored per game | 0.75 | 2.38 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.63 | 2.13 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D0 L1 | – |
| Model win probability | 20% | 57% |
| Model expected total goals | 4.4 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 | W |
| 7 |
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 | D |
| 8 |
|
8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 | D |
| 9 |
|
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 | L L |
| 10 |
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 14 |
|
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 | D |
| 15 |
|
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 | D |
| 16 |
|
8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 | L |
| 17 |
|
8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 | D |
| 18 |
|
8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 | L |
No previous meetings on record.
Zwolle vs Go Ahead head to head
Our model gives PEC Zwolle a 20% chance to win, the draw 23% and Go Ahead Eagles 57%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 64%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 81%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%.
PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 11:15 West Africa Time (10:15 UTC).
