Bundesliga WAT Matchday 6
Our headline pick
Over 1.5 goals 87% · fair odds 1.15
FC Bayern München to win
61% probability Fair odds 1.65
Our model rates FC Bayern München to win at 61%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 2.14 – 1.34 RB Leipzig (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour FC Bayern München (1802 vs 1618). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
FC Bayern München or draw
82% probability Fair odds 1.22
Our model rates FC Bayern München or draw at 82%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 2.14 – 1.34 RB Leipzig (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour FC Bayern München (1802 vs 1618). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
87% probability Fair odds 1.15
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 87%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 2.14 – 1.34 RB Leipzig (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
68% probability Fair odds 1.48
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 68%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 2.14 – 1.34 RB Leipzig (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
54% probability Fair odds 1.85
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 54%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 2.14 – 1.34 RB Leipzig (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
66% probability Fair odds 1.52
Our model rates both teams scoring at 66%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 2.14 – 1.34 RB Leipzig (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model rates FC Bayern München to win at 61%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 2.14 – 1.34 RB Leipzig (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour FC Bayern München (1802 vs 1618). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Probabilities are model estimates. Predictions are not guarantees; please gamble responsibly.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 
SC Freiburg |
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 | W |
| 2 | 
Borussia Dortmund |
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 | No recent games |
| 3 | 
FC Bayern München |
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 | D |
| 4 | 
Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 | W |
| 5 | 
RB Leipzig |
5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 | W |
| 6 | 
FC Augsburg |
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 | D |
| 7 | 
SV Werder Bremen |
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | No recent games |
No previous meetings on record.
FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig head to head
Our model gives FC Bayern München a 61% chance to win, the draw 22% and RB Leipzig 18%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 66%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 68%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%.
FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 17:30 West Africa Time (16:30 UTC).