Bundesliga WAT Matchday 6
Updated
Bayer 04 Leverkusen host SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga on Sunday 18 October at 14:30 WAT. Leverkusen sit 4th on 10 points after 5 games, while Freiburg are 1st on 13, 3 points ahead. Recent form (newest first): Leverkusen won 1 of the last 1, Freiburg won 1 of the last 1. Our model's headline view is Leverkusen or draw at 76%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.7 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Leverkusen or draw 76% · fair odds 1.32
Leverkusen to win
51% probability Fair odds 1.94
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win at 51%. Expected goals: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.97 – 1.69 SC Freiburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Bayer 04 Leverkusen (1651 vs 1552). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
over
96% probability Fair odds 1.04
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.97 – 1.69 SC Freiburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
under
76% probability Fair odds 1.31
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.97 – 1.69 SC Freiburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Leverkusen or Freiburg
76% probability Fair odds 1.32
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen or SC Freiburg at 76%. Expected goals: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.97 – 1.69 SC Freiburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Bayer 04 Leverkusen (1651 vs 1552). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
86% probability Fair odds 1.16
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 86%. Expected goals: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.97 – 1.69 SC Freiburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
72% probability Fair odds 1.40
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 72%. Expected goals: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.97 – 1.69 SC Freiburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
59% probability Fair odds 1.70
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 59%. Expected goals: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.97 – 1.69 SC Freiburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
64% probability Fair odds 1.57
Our model rates both teams scoring at 64%. Expected goals: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.97 – 1.69 SC Freiburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Leverkusen vs Freiburg is Leverkusen or draw at an estimated 76%, which converts to fair odds of 1.32. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Leverkusen | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 1st |
| Points (played) | 10 (5) | 13 (5) |
| Goals scored per game | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 51% | 24% |
| Model expected total goals | 3.7 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 | W |
| 2 |
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 | No recent games |
| 3 |
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 | D |
| 4 |
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 | W |
| 5 |
|
5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 | W |
| 6 |
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 | D |
No previous meetings on record.
Leverkusen vs Freiburg head to head
Our model gives Bayer 04 Leverkusen a 51% chance to win, the draw 24% and SC Freiburg 24%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 64%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 72%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:30 West Africa Time (13:30 UTC).