Premier League WAT Matchday 7
Updated
The Premier League meeting between AFC Bournemouth and Sunderland AFC kicks off on Sunday 18 October at 14:00 WAT. Bournemouth sit 18th on 3 points after 6 games, while Sunderland are 17th on 4, 1 point ahead. Recent form (newest first): Bournemouth lost 1 of the last 1, Sunderland lost 1 of the last 1. Headline pick: Bournemouth to win, estimated at 49%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.3 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Bournemouth to win 49% · fair odds 2.02
Bournemouth to win
49% probability Fair odds 2.02
Our model rates AFC Bournemouth to win at 49%. Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.78 – 1.44 Sunderland AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour AFC Bournemouth (1582 vs 1524). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
over
95% probability Fair odds 1.05
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 95%. Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.78 – 1.44 Sunderland AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
under
81% probability Fair odds 1.23
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 81%. Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.78 – 1.44 Sunderland AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Bournemouth or draw
75% probability Fair odds 1.33
Our model rates AFC Bournemouth or draw at 75%. Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.78 – 1.44 Sunderland AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour AFC Bournemouth (1582 vs 1524). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
83% probability Fair odds 1.21
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 83%. Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.78 – 1.44 Sunderland AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
63% probability Fair odds 1.58
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 63%. Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.78 – 1.44 Sunderland AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
62% probability Fair odds 1.62
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 62%. Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.78 – 1.44 Sunderland AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
61% probability Fair odds 1.63
Our model rates both teams scoring at 61%. Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.78 – 1.44 Sunderland AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Bournemouth vs Sunderland is Bournemouth to win at an estimated 49%, which converts to fair odds of 2.02. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Bournemouth | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 17th |
| Points (played) | 3 (6) | 4 (6) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 49% | 25% |
| Model expected total goals | 3.3 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 | L |
| 16 |
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 | D |
| 17 |
|
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 | L |
| 18 |
|
6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 | L |
| 19 |
|
6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 | D |
| 20 |
|
6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 | L |
No previous meetings on record.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland head to head
Our model gives AFC Bournemouth a 49% chance to win, the draw 26% and Sunderland AFC 25%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 61%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 63%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%.
AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland AFC kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 West Africa Time (13:00 UTC).