Bundesliga WAT Matchday 6
Updated
The Bundesliga meeting between SV 07 Elversberg and FC Augsburg kicks off on Saturday 17 October at 14:30 WAT. Elversberg sit 9th on 7 points after 5 games, while Augsburg are 6th on 8, 1 point ahead. Recent form (newest first): Elversberg lost 1 of the last 1, Augsburg drew 1 of the last 1. Headline pick: Both teams to score: Yes, estimated at 71%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.7 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Both teams to score: Yes 71% · fair odds 1.4
Elversberg to win
41% probability Fair odds 2.41
Our model rates SV 07 Elversberg to win at 41%. Expected goals: SV 07 Elversberg 1.85 – 1.81 FC Augsburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1506 vs 1505). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Elversberg or Augsburg
75% probability Fair odds 1.33
Our model rates SV 07 Elversberg or FC Augsburg at 75%. Expected goals: SV 07 Elversberg 1.85 – 1.81 FC Augsburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1506 vs 1505). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
89% probability Fair odds 1.13
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 89%. Expected goals: SV 07 Elversberg 1.85 – 1.81 FC Augsburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
71% probability Fair odds 1.41
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: SV 07 Elversberg 1.85 – 1.81 FC Augsburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
50% probability Fair odds 1.99
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 50%. Expected goals: SV 07 Elversberg 1.85 – 1.81 FC Augsburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
71% probability Fair odds 1.40
Our model rates both teams scoring at 71%. Expected goals: SV 07 Elversberg 1.85 – 1.81 FC Augsburg (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Elversberg vs Augsburg is Both teams to score: Yes at an estimated 71%, which converts to fair odds of 1.4. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Elversberg | Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 6th |
| Points (played) | 7 (5) | 8 (5) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 41% | 34% |
| Model expected total goals | 3.7 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 | W |
| 5 |
|
5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 | W |
| 6 |
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 | D |
| 7 |
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | No recent games |
| 8 |
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 | L |
| 9 |
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 10 |
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 | W |
| 11 |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 | W |
No previous meetings on record.
Elversberg vs Augsburg head to head
Our model gives SV 07 Elversberg a 41% chance to win, the draw 25% and FC Augsburg 34%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 71%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 71%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%.
SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Augsburg kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:30 West Africa Time (13:30 UTC).