Serie A WAT Matchday 31
Updated
The Serie A meeting between CA Paranaense and SE Palmeiras kicks off on Saturday 17 October at 23:30 WAT. Paranaense sit 3rd on 53 points after 30 games, while Palmeiras are 2nd on 63, 10 points ahead. Recent form (newest first): Paranaense won 1 of the last 1, Palmeiras won 1 of the last 1. Headline pick: Draw or Palmeiras, estimated at 71%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 2.5 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Draw or Palmeiras 71% · fair odds 1.41
Palmeiras to win
43% probability Fair odds 2.33
Our model rates SE Palmeiras to win at 43%. Expected goals: CA Paranaense 1.13 – 1.37 SE Palmeiras (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour SE Palmeiras (1562 vs 1690). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Paranaense or Palmeiras
72% probability Fair odds 1.39
Our model rates CA Paranaense or SE Palmeiras at 72%. Expected goals: CA Paranaense 1.13 – 1.37 SE Palmeiras (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour SE Palmeiras (1562 vs 1690). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
72% probability Fair odds 1.38
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 72%. Expected goals: CA Paranaense 1.13 – 1.37 SE Palmeiras (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 2.5 goals
54% probability Fair odds 1.84
Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 54%. Expected goals: CA Paranaense 1.13 – 1.37 SE Palmeiras (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
76% probability Fair odds 1.32
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: CA Paranaense 1.13 – 1.37 SE Palmeiras (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
51% probability Fair odds 1.94
Our model rates both teams scoring at 51%. Expected goals: CA Paranaense 1.13 – 1.37 SE Palmeiras (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Paranaense vs Palmeiras is Draw or Palmeiras at an estimated 71%, which converts to fair odds of 1.41. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Paranaense | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Points (played) | 53 (30) | 63 (30) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.63 | 1.73 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.17 | 0.73 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 29% | 43% |
| Model expected total goals | 2.5 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 | W |
| 2 |
|
30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 | W |
| 3 |
|
30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 | W |
| 4 |
|
30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 | L |
| 5 |
|
30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 | W |
No previous meetings on record.
Paranaense vs Palmeiras head to head
Our model gives CA Paranaense a 29% chance to win, the draw 28% and SE Palmeiras 43%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 51%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 46%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%.
CA Paranaense vs SE Palmeiras kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 23:30 West Africa Time (22:30 UTC).
