La Liga WAT Matchday 9
Updated
Athletic Club travel to face Valencia CF in the La Liga, kicking off Saturday 17 October at 20:00 WAT. Valencia sit 19th on 5 points after 8 games, while Athletic are 10th on 8, 3 points ahead. The selection our model rates most informative here is Under 2.5 goals (57%). The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 2.4 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Under 2.5 goals 57% · fair odds 1.75
Athletic to win
40% probability Fair odds 2.49
Our model rates Athletic Club to win at 40%. Expected goals: Valencia CF 0.99 – 1.41 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1496 vs 1520). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Valencia or Athletic
71% probability Fair odds 1.40
Our model rates Valencia CF or Athletic Club at 71%. Expected goals: Valencia CF 0.99 – 1.41 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1496 vs 1520). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
70% probability Fair odds 1.43
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 70%. Expected goals: Valencia CF 0.99 – 1.41 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 2.5 goals
57% probability Fair odds 1.75
Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 57%. Expected goals: Valencia CF 0.99 – 1.41 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
78% probability Fair odds 1.28
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 78%. Expected goals: Valencia CF 0.99 – 1.41 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: No
52% probability Fair odds 1.94
Our model rates at least one clean sheet at 52%. Expected goals: Valencia CF 0.99 – 1.41 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Valencia vs Athletic is Under 2.5 goals at an estimated 57%, which converts to fair odds of 1.75. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Valencia | Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 10th |
| Points (played) | 5 (8) | 8 (6) |
| Goals scored per game | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.88 | 1.00 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 31% | 40% |
| Model expected total goals | 2.4 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |
|
8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 | L |
| 9 |
|
8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 | D |
| 10 |
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 | No recent games |
| 11 |
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | L |
| 12 |
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | No recent games |
| 17 |
|
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 | D |
| 18 |
|
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 | D |
| 19 |
|
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 | D |
| 20 |
|
8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 | No recent games |
No previous meetings on record.
Valencia vs Athletic head to head
Our model gives Valencia CF a 31% chance to win, the draw 29% and Athletic Club 40%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 48%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 43%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%.
Valencia CF vs Athletic Club kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time (19:00 UTC).
