West Ham United FC vs Southampton FC prediction, odds and stats — 24 October 2026
Championship WAT Matchday 12
Updated WAT
West Ham United FC welcome Southampton FC on Saturday 24 October at 15:00 WAT, with Championship points at stake. Recent form, newest first: West Ham W-W, Southampton D-W-W.
Our headline pick
West Ham to win
- Probability
- 56%
- Fair odds
- 1.8
- Confidence
- Confidence: Medium
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
West HamDrawSouthampton
Match analysis
The attacking numbers read 2.73 goals a game for West Ham and 1.91 for Southampton, with 1.09 and 0.91 conceded. Our model expects about 3.2 goals in total.
Headline view: West Ham to win, rated 56% with fair odds of 1.80.
Treat 56% as a probability, not a result: 44 in 100 such picks are expected to lose.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
West Ham to win 56% · fair odds 1.80 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 95% · fair odds 1.05 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 82% · fair odds 1.22 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
West Ham or draw 81% · fair odds 1.24 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 82% · fair odds 1.22 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 63% · fair odds 1.60 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 64% · fair odds 1.57 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 58% · fair odds 1.74 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates West Ham United FC to win at 56%. Expected goals: West Ham United FC 2.06 – 1.07 Southampton FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour West Ham United FC (1648 vs 1618). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 95%. Expected goals: West Ham United FC 2.06 – 1.07 Southampton FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 82%. Expected goals: West Ham United FC 2.06 – 1.07 Southampton FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates West Ham United FC or draw at 81%. Expected goals: West Ham United FC 2.06 – 1.07 Southampton FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour West Ham United FC (1648 vs 1618). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 82%. Expected goals: West Ham United FC 2.06 – 1.07 Southampton FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 63%. Expected goals: West Ham United FC 2.06 – 1.07 Southampton FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 64%. Expected goals: West Ham United FC 2.06 – 1.07 Southampton FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 58%. Expected goals: West Ham United FC 2.06 – 1.07 Southampton FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | West Ham | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Points (played) | 22 (11) | 21 (11) |
| Goals scored per game | 2.73 | 1.91 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.09 | 0.91 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | Away: W1 D0 L0 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 | |
| 2 |
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 23 | |
| 3 |
|
11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | +18 | 22 | |
| 4 |
|
11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +11 | 21 | |
| 5 |
|
11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | +9 | 20 | |
| 6 |
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 20 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Related matches
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1-5
FT
Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Both teams to score: Yes 63% Confidence: High Won -
Portsmouth vs Millwall
-
Sheffield Utd vs Derby County
-
Charlton vs Norwich
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QPR vs Swansea
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Blackburn vs Wrexham
Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for West Ham United FC vs Southampton FC?
West Ham to win at 56% (fair odds 1.80). Match result: West Ham 56%, draw 25%, Southampton 19%.
Will both teams score in West Ham United FC vs Southampton FC?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 58%, a clean sheet for either side at 42%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in West Ham United FC vs Southampton FC?
Three or more goals: 63%; two or fewer: 37%.
What time does West Ham United FC vs Southampton FC kick off?
Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 15:00 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the West Ham United FC vs Southampton FC result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.
