Cardiff City FC vs Birmingham City FC prediction, odds and stats — 24 October 2026
Championship WAT Matchday 12
Updated WAT
Our Championship preview: Cardiff City FC play Birmingham City FC on Saturday 24 October 2026, 15:00 WAT. On recent form Cardiff took 4 of 9 points and Birmingham 9 of 9.
Our headline pick
Over 2.5 goals
- Probability
- 62%
- Fair odds
- 1.61
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
CardiffDrawBirmingham
Match analysis
Cardiff score 1.64 and concede 1.55 per game; Birmingham score 1.82 and concede 1.00. Our model expects about 3.2 goals in total.
For this match the pick that stands out is Over 2.5 goals (62%, fair odds 1.61).
Even at 62%, this pick loses about 4 times in 10 (38%).
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Birmingham to win 39% · fair odds 2.58 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 95% · fair odds 1.05 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 82% · fair odds 1.21 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Cardiff or Birmingham 73% · fair odds 1.37 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 82% · fair odds 1.23 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 62% · fair odds 1.61 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 64% · fair odds 1.56 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 61% · fair odds 1.64 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Birmingham City FC to win at 39%. Expected goals: Cardiff City FC 1.36 – 1.75 Birmingham City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1560 vs 1579). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 95%. Expected goals: Cardiff City FC 1.36 – 1.75 Birmingham City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 82%. Expected goals: Cardiff City FC 1.36 – 1.75 Birmingham City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Cardiff City FC or Birmingham City FC at 73%. Expected goals: Cardiff City FC 1.36 – 1.75 Birmingham City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1560 vs 1579). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 82%. Expected goals: Cardiff City FC 1.36 – 1.75 Birmingham City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 62%. Expected goals: Cardiff City FC 1.36 – 1.75 Birmingham City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 64%. Expected goals: Cardiff City FC 1.36 – 1.75 Birmingham City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 61%. Expected goals: Cardiff City FC 1.36 – 1.75 Birmingham City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Cardiff | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 5th |
| Points (played) | 11 (11) | 20 (11) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.64 | 1.82 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.55 | 1.00 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | Away: W1 D0 L0 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
|
11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | +18 | 22 | |
| 4 |
|
11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +11 | 21 | |
| 5 |
|
11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | +9 | 20 | |
| 6 |
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 20 | |
| 7 |
|
11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 | |
| 17 |
|
12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 | |
| 18 |
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 | |
| 19 |
|
11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 11 | |
| 20 |
|
11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 | |
| 21 |
|
11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 9 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
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1-5
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Cardiff City FC vs Birmingham City FC?
Over 2.5 goals at 62% (fair odds 1.61). Match result: Cardiff 34%, draw 27%, Birmingham 39%.
Will both teams score in Cardiff City FC vs Birmingham City FC?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 61%, a clean sheet for either side at 39%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cardiff City FC vs Birmingham City FC?
Three or more goals: 62%; two or fewer: 38%.
What time does Cardiff City FC vs Birmingham City FC kick off?
Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 15:00 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Cardiff City FC vs Birmingham City FC result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.
