Sheffield United FC vs Derby County FC prediction, odds and stats — 24 October 2026
Championship WAT Matchday 12
Updated WAT
The Championship meeting of Sheffield United FC and Derby County FC kicks off on Saturday 24 October at 12:30 WAT. Over their last few matches Sheffield Utd lost 1 and Derby County lost 2 (3 and 3 games).
Our headline pick
Sheffield Utd to win
- Probability
- 61%
- Fair odds
- 1.64
- Confidence
- Confidence: Medium
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
Sheffield UtdDrawDerby County
Match analysis
Sheffield Utd games average 2.63 goals and Derby County games 2.64. Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total.
Our model's strongest angle here is Sheffield Utd to win at 61%; anything shorter than 1.64 offers less than fair value.
No pick is certain: 39% of the time this outcome does not happen on our numbers.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Sheffield Utd to win 61% · fair odds 1.64 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 95% · fair odds 1.05 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 85% · fair odds 1.18 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Sheffield Utd or draw 85% · fair odds 1.18 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 79% · fair odds 1.26 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 57% · fair odds 1.75 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 67% · fair odds 1.49 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 52% · fair odds 1.94 Confidence: Medium |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Sheffield United FC to win at 61%. Expected goals: Sheffield United FC 2.17 – 0.74 Derby County FC (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Sheffield United FC (1544 vs 1485). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 95%. Expected goals: Sheffield United FC 2.17 – 0.74 Derby County FC (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 85%. Expected goals: Sheffield United FC 2.17 – 0.74 Derby County FC (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Sheffield United FC or draw at 85%. Expected goals: Sheffield United FC 2.17 – 0.74 Derby County FC (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Sheffield United FC (1544 vs 1485). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 79%. Expected goals: Sheffield United FC 2.17 – 0.74 Derby County FC (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 57%. Expected goals: Sheffield United FC 2.17 – 0.74 Derby County FC (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 67%. Expected goals: Sheffield United FC 2.17 – 0.74 Derby County FC (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 52%. Expected goals: Sheffield United FC 2.17 – 0.74 Derby County FC (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Sheffield Utd | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 23rd |
| Points (played) | 15 (11) | 6 (11) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.36 | 0.82 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.27 | 1.82 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |
|
11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 17 | |
| 10 |
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 | |
| 11 |
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 | |
| 12 |
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 | |
| 13 |
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 | |
| 21 |
|
11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 9 | |
| 22 |
|
11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 8 | |
| 23 |
|
11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 | |
| 24 |
|
11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -15 | 4 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Related matches
-
1-5
FT
Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Both teams to score: Yes 63% Confidence: High Won -
Portsmouth vs Millwall
-
Charlton vs Norwich
-
West Ham vs Southampton
-
QPR vs Swansea
-
Blackburn vs Wrexham
Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Sheffield United FC vs Derby County FC?
Sheffield Utd to win at 61% (fair odds 1.64). Match result: Sheffield Utd 61%, draw 24%, Derby County 15%.
Will both teams score in Sheffield United FC vs Derby County FC?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 52%, a clean sheet for either side at 48%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sheffield United FC vs Derby County FC?
Three or more goals: 57%; two or fewer: 43%.
What time does Sheffield United FC vs Derby County FC kick off?
Saturday 24 October 2026 at 12:30 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 12:30 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Sheffield United FC vs Derby County FC result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.
