Portsmouth FC vs Millwall FC prediction, odds and stats — 24 October 2026
Championship WAT Matchday 12
Updated WAT
Portsmouth FC against Millwall FC is a Championship fixture scheduled for Saturday 24 October at 12:30 WAT. Portsmouth have 2 wins in their last 4, Millwall 1 in their last 3.
Our headline pick
Over 1.5 goals
- Probability
- 80%
- Fair odds
- 1.26
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
PortsmouthDrawMillwall
Match analysis
Per game this season: Portsmouth 1.27 scored, 1.27 conceded; Millwall 1.64 scored, 1.64 conceded. Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total.
Our headline pick is Over 1.5 goals at 80%, which converts to fair odds of 1.26.
With 20% on the other side, losing runs happen even when the model is right on average.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Portsmouth to win 42% · fair odds 2.40 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 95% · fair odds 1.05 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 85% · fair odds 1.18 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Portsmouth or Millwall 73% · fair odds 1.37 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 80% · fair odds 1.26 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 57% · fair odds 1.75 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 67% · fair odds 1.49 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 59% · fair odds 1.68 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Portsmouth FC to win at 42%. Expected goals: Portsmouth FC 1.64 – 1.28 Millwall FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Millwall FC (1515 vs 1568). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 95%. Expected goals: Portsmouth FC 1.64 – 1.28 Millwall FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 85%. Expected goals: Portsmouth FC 1.64 – 1.28 Millwall FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Portsmouth FC or Millwall FC at 73%. Expected goals: Portsmouth FC 1.64 – 1.28 Millwall FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Millwall FC (1515 vs 1568). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 80%. Expected goals: Portsmouth FC 1.64 – 1.28 Millwall FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 57%. Expected goals: Portsmouth FC 1.64 – 1.28 Millwall FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 67%. Expected goals: Portsmouth FC 1.64 – 1.28 Millwall FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 59%. Expected goals: Portsmouth FC 1.64 – 1.28 Millwall FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 12th |
| Points (played) | 15 (11) | 15 (11) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.27 | 1.64 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.27 | 1.64 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | Away: W1 D0 L0 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 |
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 | |
| 11 |
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 | |
| 12 |
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 | |
| 13 |
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 | |
| 14 |
|
11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 14 | |
| 15 |
|
11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Related matches
-
1-5
FT
Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Both teams to score: Yes 63% Confidence: High Won -
Sheffield Utd vs Derby County
-
Charlton vs Norwich
-
West Ham vs Southampton
-
QPR vs Swansea
-
Blackburn vs Wrexham
Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Portsmouth FC vs Millwall FC?
Over 1.5 goals at 80% (fair odds 1.26). Match result: Portsmouth 42%, draw 27%, Millwall 31%.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth FC vs Millwall FC?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 59%, a clean sheet for either side at 41%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Portsmouth FC vs Millwall FC?
Three or more goals: 57%; two or fewer: 43%.
What time does Portsmouth FC vs Millwall FC kick off?
Saturday 24 October 2026 at 12:30 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 12:30 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Portsmouth FC vs Millwall FC result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.
