Queens Park Rangers FC vs Swansea City AFC prediction, odds and stats — 24 October 2026
Championship WAT Matchday 12
Updated WAT
The Championship meeting of Queens Park Rangers FC and Swansea City AFC kicks off on Saturday 24 October at 15:00 WAT. Recent form, newest first: QPR L-W, Swansea L-W-W.
Our headline pick
Under 2.5 goals
- Probability
- 58%
- Fair odds
- 1.73
- Confidence
- Confidence: Medium
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
QPRDrawSwansea
Match analysis
QPR games average 2.45 goals and Swansea games 2.18. Our model expects about 2.4 goals in total.
At 58%, Under 2.5 goals is the clearest edge over the league's usual pattern in this fixture (fair odds 1.73).
Treat 58% as a probability, not a result: 42 in 100 such picks are expected to lose.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Swansea to win 39% · fair odds 2.59 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 92% · fair odds 1.08 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 90% · fair odds 1.11 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
QPR or Swansea 70% · fair odds 1.42 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 72% · fair odds 1.38 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Under 2.5 goals 58% · fair odds 1.73 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 76% · fair odds 1.31 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 52% · fair odds 1.94 Confidence: Medium |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Swansea City AFC to win at 39%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers FC 1.03 – 1.26 Swansea City AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Swansea City AFC (1501 vs 1564). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 92%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers FC 1.03 – 1.26 Swansea City AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 90%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers FC 1.03 – 1.26 Swansea City AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Queens Park Rangers FC or Swansea City AFC at 70%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers FC 1.03 – 1.26 Swansea City AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Swansea City AFC (1501 vs 1564). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 72%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers FC 1.03 – 1.26 Swansea City AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 58%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers FC 1.03 – 1.26 Swansea City AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers FC 1.03 – 1.26 Swansea City AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 52%. Expected goals: Queens Park Rangers FC 1.03 – 1.26 Swansea City AFC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | QPR | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 2nd |
| Points (played) | 17 (11) | 23 (11) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.36 | 1.45 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.09 | 0.73 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | Away: W1 D0 L0 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 | |
| 2 |
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 23 | |
| 3 |
|
11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | +18 | 22 | |
| 4 |
|
11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +11 | 21 | |
| 7 |
|
11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 | |
| 8 |
|
11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 | |
| 9 |
|
11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 17 | |
| 10 |
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 | |
| 11 |
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Queens Park Rangers FC vs Swansea City AFC?
Under 2.5 goals at 58% (fair odds 1.73). Match result: QPR 32%, draw 30%, Swansea 39%.
Will both teams score in Queens Park Rangers FC vs Swansea City AFC?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 52%, a clean sheet for either side at 48%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Queens Park Rangers FC vs Swansea City AFC?
Three or more goals: 42%; two or fewer: 58%.
What time does Queens Park Rangers FC vs Swansea City AFC kick off?
Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 15:00 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Queens Park Rangers FC vs Swansea City AFC result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.
