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Bolton vs Middlesbrough

Bolton Wanderers FC vs Middlesbrough FC result, prediction review and stats — 23 October 2026

Championship Fri 23 Oct 2026 20:00 WAT Matchday 12

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 01:25 WAT

Bolton Wanderers FC against Middlesbrough FC is a Championship fixture scheduled for Friday 23 October at 20:00 WAT. Form guide: Bolton L-D-W-L and Middlesbrough W-D-W-W, most recent result first.

Bolton

1 - 5 Full time (HT 1-2)

Middlesbrough

Our headline pick

Both teams to score: Yes

Probability: 63%
Fair odds: 1.58
Confidence: Confidence: High

Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin. Won

Match result probabilities

BoltonDrawMiddlesbrough

Match analysis

Per game this season: Bolton 1.33 scored, 1.92 conceded; Middlesbrough 2.25 scored, 1.42 conceded. Our model expects about 3.7 goals in total.

On the road Middlesbrough have collected 6 points from 2 games; at home Bolton have 0 from 2.

Result & prediction review

Bolton Wanderers FC 1-5 Middlesbrough FC. It was 1-2 at half-time. 5 of our 8 market predictions landed (Both teams to score: Yes, Bolton or Middlesbrough, over, Over 1.5 goals, Over 2.5 goals). The headline pick, Both teams to score: Yes, was correct. The final score was not among our three most likely scorelines (1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2 and 3-1).

How each prediction did

Our probabilities by market for Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Market	Probabilities	Our pick
Match result	Bolton 38.8% Middlesbrough 35.9% Draw 25.3%	Bolton to win 39% · fair odds 2.58 Confidence: Low Lost
Over/Under 0.5 goals	over 95.6% under 4.4%	over 96% · fair odds 1.05 Confidence: High Won
Over/Under 4.5 goals	under 77.8% over 22.2%	under 78% · fair odds 1.28 Confidence: High Lost
Double chance	12 74.7% 1X 64.1% X2 61.2%	Bolton or Middlesbrough 75% · fair odds 1.34 Confidence: High Won
Over/Under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 85.3% Under 1.5 14.8%	Over 1.5 goals 85% · fair odds 1.17 Confidence: High Won
Over/Under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 70.8% Under 2.5 29.2%	Over 2.5 goals 71% · fair odds 1.41 Confidence: High Won
Over/Under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 60.2% Over 3.5 39.8%	Under 3.5 goals 60% · fair odds 1.66 Confidence: Medium Lost
Both teams to score	Yes 63.4% No 36.7%	Both teams to score: Yes 63% · fair odds 1.58 Confidence: High Won
Correct score (top 3)	1-1 9.9% 2-1 8.1% 1-2 8.0%

Why the model leans this way, market by market

Match result: Our model rates Bolton Wanderers FC to win at 39%. Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers FC 1.77 – 1.76 Middlesbrough FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Middlesbrough FC (1552 vs 1600). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 0.5 goals: Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers FC 1.77 – 1.76 Middlesbrough FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 4.5 goals: Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 78%. Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers FC 1.77 – 1.76 Middlesbrough FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Double chance: Our model rates Bolton Wanderers FC or Middlesbrough FC at 75%. Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers FC 1.77 – 1.76 Middlesbrough FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Middlesbrough FC (1552 vs 1600). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 1.5 goals: Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 85%. Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers FC 1.77 – 1.76 Middlesbrough FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers FC 1.77 – 1.76 Middlesbrough FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 3.5 goals: Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 60%. Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers FC 1.77 – 1.76 Middlesbrough FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Our model rates both teams scoring at 63%. Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers FC 1.77 – 1.76 Middlesbrough FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.

Key stats

Key stats for Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Stat	Bolton	Middlesbrough
League position	17th	1st
Points (played)	14 (12)	25 (12)
Goals scored per game	1.33	2.25
Goals conceded per game	1.92	1.42
Home / away record (recent)	Home: W0 D0 L2	Away: W2 D0 L0

Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.

Form (last five, newest first)

Bolton

Middlesbrough

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	+10	25
2	Swansea	11	7	2	2	+8	23
3	West Ham	11	6	4	1	+18	22
15	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	-3	14
16	Charlton	11	3	5	3	-5	14
17	Bolton	12	4	2	6	-7	14
18	Lincoln City	11	3	3	5	-10	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	+1	11