Lincoln City FC vs Burnley FC prediction, odds and stats — 24 October 2026
Championship WAT Matchday 12
Updated WAT
Burnley FC travel to face Lincoln City FC in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 24 October at 15:00 WAT. Lincoln City come in with 1 points from their last 3 games, Burnley with 4 from 3.
Our headline pick
Burnley to win
- Probability
- 46%
- Fair odds
- 2.16
- Confidence
- Confidence: Low
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
Lincoln CityDrawBurnley
Match analysis
League scoring rates: Lincoln City 0.82/1.73, Burnley 1.45/1.91 (scored/conceded per game). Our model expects about 3.8 goals in total.
Burnley to win leads our markets at an estimated 46%, fair odds 2.16.
The 54% chance against Burnley to win is real, so never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Burnley to win 46% · fair odds 2.16 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 96% · fair odds 1.04 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 76% · fair odds 1.32 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Lincoln City or Burnley 76% · fair odds 1.31 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 87% · fair odds 1.15 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 73% · fair odds 1.36 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 56% · fair odds 1.79 Confidence: Medium |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 63% · fair odds 1.59 Confidence: High Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Burnley FC to win at 46%. Expected goals: Lincoln City FC 1.39 – 2.38 Burnley FC (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1479 vs 1495). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: Lincoln City FC 1.39 – 2.38 Burnley FC (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: Lincoln City FC 1.39 – 2.38 Burnley FC (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Lincoln City FC or Burnley FC at 76%. Expected goals: Lincoln City FC 1.39 – 2.38 Burnley FC (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1479 vs 1495). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 87%. Expected goals: Lincoln City FC 1.39 – 2.38 Burnley FC (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 73%. Expected goals: Lincoln City FC 1.39 – 2.38 Burnley FC (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 56%. Expected goals: Lincoln City FC 1.39 – 2.38 Burnley FC (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 63%. Expected goals: Lincoln City FC 1.39 – 2.38 Burnley FC (most likely score 1-2). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Lincoln City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 22nd |
| Points (played) | 12 (11) | 8 (11) |
| Goals scored per game | 0.82 | 1.45 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.73 | 1.91 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D0 L1 | Away: W1 D0 L0 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |
|
11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 14 | |
| 17 |
|
12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 | |
| 18 |
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 | |
| 19 |
|
11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 11 | |
| 20 |
|
11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 | |
| 21 |
|
11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 9 | |
| 22 |
|
11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 8 | |
| 23 |
|
11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 | |
| 24 |
|
11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -15 | 4 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Related matches
-
1-5
FT
Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Both teams to score: Yes 63% Confidence: High Won -
Portsmouth vs Millwall
-
Sheffield Utd vs Derby County
-
Charlton vs Norwich
-
West Ham vs Southampton
-
QPR vs Swansea
Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Lincoln City FC vs Burnley FC?
Burnley to win at 46% (fair odds 2.16). Match result: Lincoln City 30%, draw 24%, Burnley 46%.
Will both teams score in Lincoln City FC vs Burnley FC?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 63%, a clean sheet for either side at 37%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lincoln City FC vs Burnley FC?
Three or more goals: 73%; two or fewer: 27%.
What time does Lincoln City FC vs Burnley FC kick off?
Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 15:00 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Lincoln City FC vs Burnley FC result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.
