Stoke City FC vs Bristol City FC prediction, odds and stats — 24 October 2026
Championship WAT Matchday 12
Updated WAT
The Championship meeting of Stoke City FC and Bristol City FC kicks off on Saturday 24 October at 15:00 WAT. On recent form Stoke took 6 of 9 points and Bristol City 1 of 9.
Our headline pick
Stoke or draw
- Probability
- 75%
- Fair odds
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
StokeDrawBristol City
Match analysis
Stoke games average 3.09 goals and Bristol City games 2.45. Our model expects about 2.6 goals in total.
Headline view: Stoke or draw, rated 75% with fair odds of 1.33.
Even at 75%, this pick loses about 3 times in 10 (25%).
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Stoke to win 47% · fair odds 2.14 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 93% · fair odds 1.08 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 88% · fair odds 1.14 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Stoke or draw 75% · fair odds 1.33 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 75% · fair odds 1.33 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Under 2.5 goals 53% · fair odds 1.90 Confidence: Medium |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 73% · fair odds 1.37 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 53% · fair odds 1.87 Confidence: Medium |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Stoke City FC to win at 47%. Expected goals: Stoke City FC 1.57 – 1.00 Bristol City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1483 vs 1497). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 93%. Expected goals: Stoke City FC 1.57 – 1.00 Bristol City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 88%. Expected goals: Stoke City FC 1.57 – 1.00 Bristol City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Stoke City FC or draw at 75%. Expected goals: Stoke City FC 1.57 – 1.00 Bristol City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1483 vs 1497). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 75%. Expected goals: Stoke City FC 1.57 – 1.00 Bristol City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 53%. Expected goals: Stoke City FC 1.57 – 1.00 Bristol City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 73%. Expected goals: Stoke City FC 1.57 – 1.00 Bristol City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 53%. Expected goals: Stoke City FC 1.57 – 1.00 Bristol City FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Stoke | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 15th |
| Points (played) | 19 (11) | 14 (11) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.64 | 1.09 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D0 L1 | Away: W0 D1 L0 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |
|
11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | +9 | 20 | |
| 6 |
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 20 | |
| 7 |
|
11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 19 | |
| 8 |
|
11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 | |
| 9 |
|
11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 17 | |
| 13 |
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 | |
| 14 |
|
11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 14 | |
| 15 |
|
11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 | |
| 16 |
|
11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 14 | |
| 17 |
|
12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
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1-5
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Charlton vs Norwich
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Stoke City FC vs Bristol City FC?
Stoke or draw at 75% (fair odds 1.33). Match result: Stoke 47%, draw 28%, Bristol City 25%.
Will both teams score in Stoke City FC vs Bristol City FC?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 53%, a clean sheet for either side at 47%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Stoke City FC vs Bristol City FC?
Three or more goals: 47%; two or fewer: 53%.
What time does Stoke City FC vs Bristol City FC kick off?
Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 15:00 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Stoke City FC vs Bristol City FC result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.
