FC Bayern München vs Arsenal FC prediction, odds and stats — 21 October 2026
UEFA Champions League WAT Matchday 3
Updated WAT
Arsenal FC travel to face FC Bayern München in the UEFA Champions League, kicking off Wednesday 21 October at 20:00 WAT. Bayern come in with 5 points from their last 3 games, Arsenal with 9 from 3.
Our headline pick
Both teams to score: Yes
- Probability
- 64%
- Fair odds
- 1.57
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
BayernDrawArsenal
Match analysis
Around 3.7 goals is the central estimate from our over/under prices.
Our headline pick is Both teams to score: Yes at 64%, which converts to fair odds of 1.57.
The 36% chance against Both teams to score: Yes is real, so never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Bayern to win 48% · fair odds 2.08 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 96% · fair odds 1.04 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 77% · fair odds 1.30 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Bayern or Arsenal 75% · fair odds 1.33 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 86% · fair odds 1.17 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 71% · fair odds 1.41 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 60% · fair odds 1.67 Confidence: Medium |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 64% · fair odds 1.57 Confidence: High Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates FC Bayern München to win at 48%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 1.98 – 1.62 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. Elo ratings favour FC Bayern München (1875 vs 1845). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 1.98 – 1.62 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 77%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 1.98 – 1.62 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates FC Bayern München or Arsenal FC at 75%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 1.98 – 1.62 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. Elo ratings favour FC Bayern München (1875 vs 1845). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 86%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 1.98 – 1.62 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 1.98 – 1.62 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 60%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 1.98 – 1.62 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 64%. Expected goals: FC Bayern München 1.98 – 1.62 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Bayern | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points (played) | – | – |
| Goals scored per game | – | – |
| Goals conceded per game | – | – |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Bayern vs Arsenal head to head
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for FC Bayern München vs Arsenal FC?
Both teams to score: Yes at 64% (fair odds 1.57). Match result: Bayern 48%, draw 25%, Arsenal 27%.
Will both teams score in FC Bayern München vs Arsenal FC?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 64%, a clean sheet for either side at 36%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Bayern München vs Arsenal FC?
Three or more goals: 71%; two or fewer: 29%.
What time does FC Bayern München vs Arsenal FC kick off?
Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 20:00 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the FC Bayern München vs Arsenal FC result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.