FC Internazionale Milano vs FK Shakhtar Donetsk prediction, odds and stats — 21 October 2026
UEFA Champions League WAT Matchday 3
Updated WAT
In the UEFA Champions League, FC Internazionale Milano take on FK Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday 21 October at 20:00 WAT. Recent form, newest first: Inter W-L-W, Shaktar W.
Our headline pick
Inter to win
- Probability
- 90%
- Fair odds
- 1.11
- Confidence
- Confidence: Low
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin. Limited data
Match result probabilities
InterDrawShaktar
Match analysis
Expected total goals: 4.6; three or more goals is rated 83%.
For this match the pick that stands out is Inter to win (90%, fair odds 1.11).
Treat 90% as a probability, not a result: 10 in 100 such picks are expected to lose. One side has limited data, so treat the number with extra caution.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Inter to win 90% · fair odds 1.11 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 96% · fair odds 1.04 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 65% · fair odds 1.54 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Double chance |
|
Inter or draw 90% · fair odds 1.11 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 90% · fair odds 1.11 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 83% · fair odds 1.20 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Over 3.5 goals 52% · fair odds 1.91 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 61% · fair odds 1.63 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates FC Internazionale Milano to win at 90%. Expected goals: FC Internazionale Milano 4.30 – 1.02 FK Shakhtar Donetsk (most likely score 4-1). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. Elo ratings favour FC Internazionale Milano (1845 vs 1509). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: FC Internazionale Milano 4.30 – 1.02 FK Shakhtar Donetsk (most likely score 4-1). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 65%. Expected goals: FC Internazionale Milano 4.30 – 1.02 FK Shakhtar Donetsk (most likely score 4-1). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates FC Internazionale Milano or draw at 90%. Expected goals: FC Internazionale Milano 4.30 – 1.02 FK Shakhtar Donetsk (most likely score 4-1). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. Elo ratings favour FC Internazionale Milano (1845 vs 1509). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 90%. Expected goals: FC Internazionale Milano 4.30 – 1.02 FK Shakhtar Donetsk (most likely score 4-1). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 83%. Expected goals: FC Internazionale Milano 4.30 – 1.02 FK Shakhtar Donetsk (most likely score 4-1). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates over 3.5 goals at 52%. Expected goals: FC Internazionale Milano 4.30 – 1.02 FK Shakhtar Donetsk (most likely score 4-1). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 61%. Expected goals: FC Internazionale Milano 4.30 – 1.02 FK Shakhtar Donetsk (most likely score 4-1). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Inter | Shaktar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points (played) | – | – |
| Goals scored per game | – | – |
| Goals conceded per game | – | – |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D0 L1 | – |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Related matches
-
Sabah FK vs Dortmund
Dortmund to win 78% Confidence: Low Limited data -
Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha
-
Porto vs PSV
-
Man City vs PAE AEK
-
PSG vs Barça
-
Roma vs Sl. Bratislava
Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for FC Internazionale Milano vs FK Shakhtar Donetsk?
Inter to win at 90% (fair odds 1.11). Match result: Inter 90%, draw 9%, Shaktar 1%.
Will both teams score in FC Internazionale Milano vs FK Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 61%, a clean sheet for either side at 39%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Internazionale Milano vs FK Shakhtar Donetsk?
Three or more goals: 83%; two or fewer: 17%.
What time does FC Internazionale Milano vs FK Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 20:00 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the FC Internazionale Milano vs FK Shakhtar Donetsk result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.