Lille OSC vs Galatasaray SK prediction, odds and stats — 21 October 2026
UEFA Champions League WAT Matchday 3
Updated WAT
Wednesday brings Lille OSC against Galatasaray SK in the UEFA Champions League, at 17:45 WAT. Recent form, newest first: Lille D-L-W, Galatasaray L.
Our headline pick
Both teams to score: Yes
- Probability
- 61%
- Fair odds
- 1.63
- Confidence
- Confidence: Medium
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
LilleDrawGalatasaray
Match analysis
A total near 3.3 goals is what our probabilities imply for Lille vs Galatasaray.
Our model's strongest angle here is Both teams to score: Yes at 61%; anything shorter than 1.63 offers less than fair value.
Treat 61% as a probability, not a result: 39 in 100 such picks are expected to lose.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Lille to win 40% · fair odds 2.48 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 95% · fair odds 1.05 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 81% · fair odds 1.24 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Lille or Galatasaray 74% · fair odds 1.34 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 83% · fair odds 1.21 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 64% · fair odds 1.57 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 61% · fair odds 1.63 Confidence: Medium |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 61% · fair odds 1.63 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Lille OSC to win at 40%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.83 – 1.41 Galatasaray SK (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. Elo ratings favour Galatasaray SK (1686 vs 1777). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 95%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.83 – 1.41 Galatasaray SK (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 81%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.83 – 1.41 Galatasaray SK (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Lille OSC or Galatasaray SK at 74%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.83 – 1.41 Galatasaray SK (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. Elo ratings favour Galatasaray SK (1686 vs 1777). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 83%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.83 – 1.41 Galatasaray SK (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 64%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.83 – 1.41 Galatasaray SK (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 61%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.83 – 1.41 Galatasaray SK (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 61%. Expected goals: Lille OSC 1.83 – 1.41 Galatasaray SK (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Lille | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points (played) | – | – |
| Goals scored per game | – | – |
| Goals conceded per game | – | – |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Lille vs Galatasaray head to head
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Lille OSC vs Galatasaray SK?
Both teams to score: Yes at 61% (fair odds 1.63). Match result: Lille 40%, draw 26%, Galatasaray 34%.
Will both teams score in Lille OSC vs Galatasaray SK?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 61%, a clean sheet for either side at 39%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lille OSC vs Galatasaray SK?
Three or more goals: 64%; two or fewer: 36%.
What time does Lille OSC vs Galatasaray SK kick off?
Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 17:45 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 17:45 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Lille OSC vs Galatasaray SK result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.