Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund prediction, odds and stats — 20 October 2026
UEFA Champions League WAT Matchday 3
Updated WAT
In the UEFA Champions League, Sabah FK take on Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday 20 October at 17:45 WAT. Recent form, newest first: Sabah FK W, Dortmund D-L.
Our headline pick
Dortmund to win
- Probability
- 78%
- Fair odds
- 1.29
- Confidence
- Confidence: Low
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin. Limited data
Match result probabilities
Sabah FKDrawDortmund
Match analysis
Expected total goals: 3.7; three or more goals is rated 71%.
Our model's strongest angle here is Dortmund to win at 78%; anything shorter than 1.29 offers less than fair value.
Treat 78% as a probability, not a result: 22 in 100 such picks are expected to lose. One side has limited data, so treat the number with extra caution.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Dortmund to win 78% · fair odds 1.29 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 95% · fair odds 1.05 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 81% · fair odds 1.24 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Double chance |
|
Draw or Dortmund 90% · fair odds 1.11 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 83% · fair odds 1.21 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 71% · fair odds 1.41 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 61% · fair odds 1.64 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 57% · fair odds 1.74 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Borussia Dortmund to win at 78%. Expected goals: Sabah FK 1.01 – 2.24 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 1-2). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. Elo ratings favour Borussia Dortmund (1509 vs 1742). The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 95%. Expected goals: Sabah FK 1.01 – 2.24 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 1-2). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 81%. Expected goals: Sabah FK 1.01 – 2.24 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 1-2). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Borussia Dortmund or draw at 90%. Expected goals: Sabah FK 1.01 – 2.24 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 1-2). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. Elo ratings favour Borussia Dortmund (1509 vs 1742). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 83%. Expected goals: Sabah FK 1.01 – 2.24 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 1-2). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: Sabah FK 1.01 – 2.24 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 1-2). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. The betting market view is broadly in line with our numbers.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 61%. Expected goals: Sabah FK 1.01 – 2.24 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 1-2). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. The betting market view is broadly in line with our numbers.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 57%. Expected goals: Sabah FK 1.01 – 2.24 Borussia Dortmund (most likely score 1-2). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Sabah FK | Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points (played) | – | – |
| Goals scored per game | – | – |
| Goals conceded per game | – | – |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Sabah FK vs Dortmund head to head
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund?
Dortmund to win at 78% (fair odds 1.29). Match result: Sabah FK 7%, draw 15%, Dortmund 78%.
Will both teams score in Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 57%, a clean sheet for either side at 43%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund?
Three or more goals: 71%; two or fewer: 29%.
What time does Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 17:45 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 17:45 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.