FC Porto vs PSV prediction, odds and stats — 20 October 2026

UEFA Champions League Tue 20 Oct 2026 20:00 WAT Matchday 3

Updated 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 WAT

Tuesday brings FC Porto against PSV in the UEFA Champions League, at 20:00 WAT. Recent form, newest first: Porto L-W, PSV L-L.

Porto

vs 20:00

PSV

Our headline pick

Porto to win

Probability: 62%
Fair odds: 1.61
Confidence: Confidence: Medium

Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.

Match result probabilities

PortoDrawPSV

Match analysis

A total near 3.2 goals is what our probabilities imply for Porto vs PSV.

For this match the pick that stands out is Porto to win (62%, fair odds 1.61).

Treat 62% as a probability, not a result: 38 in 100 such picks are expected to lose.

Markets

Our probabilities by market for Porto vs PSV
Market	Probabilities	Our pick
Match result	Porto 62.1% Draw 21.2% PSV 16.7%	Porto to win 62% · fair odds 1.61 Confidence: Medium Tip
Over/Under 0.5 goals	over 96.0% under 4.0%	over 96% · fair odds 1.04 Confidence: High
Over/Under 4.5 goals	under 75.8% over 24.2%	under 76% · fair odds 1.32 Confidence: High Tip
Double chance	1X 83.3% 12 78.8% X2 37.9%	Porto or draw 83% · fair odds 1.20 Confidence: High Tip
Over/Under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 86.6% Under 1.5 13.4%	Over 1.5 goals 87% · fair odds 1.15 Confidence: High Tip
Over/Under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 62.8% Under 2.5 37.2%	Over 2.5 goals 63% · fair odds 1.59 Confidence: High Tip
Over/Under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 60.4% Over 3.5 39.6%	Under 3.5 goals 60% · fair odds 1.66 Confidence: Medium
Both teams to score	Yes 63.2% No 36.8%	Both teams to score: Yes 63% · fair odds 1.58 Confidence: High Tip
Correct score (top 3)	2-1 9.1% 1-1 8.5% 3-1 7.0%

Why the model leans this way, market by market

Match result: Our model rates FC Porto to win at 62%. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.30 – 1.43 PSV (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. Elo ratings are close (1801 vs 1805). The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
Over/Under 0.5 goals: Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.30 – 1.43 PSV (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 4.5 goals: Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.30 – 1.43 PSV (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Double chance: Our model rates FC Porto or draw at 83%. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.30 – 1.43 PSV (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. Elo ratings are close (1801 vs 1805). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 1.5 goals: Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 87%. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.30 – 1.43 PSV (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 63%. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.30 – 1.43 PSV (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. The betting market is less positive on this outcome than our goals model.
Over/Under 3.5 goals: Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 60%. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.30 – 1.43 PSV (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
Both teams to score: Our model rates both teams scoring at 63%. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.30 – 1.43 PSV (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.

Our reasoning

Key stats

Key stats for Porto vs PSV
Stat	Porto	PSV
League position	–	–
Points (played)	–	–
Goals scored per game	–	–
Goals conceded per game	–	–
Home / away record (recent)	–	Away: W0 D0 L1

Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.

Form (last five, newest first)

Porto

PSV

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Porto vs PSV head to head

Related matches

Frequently asked questions

What is our prediction for FC Porto vs PSV?

Porto to win at 62% (fair odds 1.61). Match result: Porto 62%, draw 21%, PSV 17%.

Will both teams score in FC Porto vs PSV?

Our model puts both teams scoring at 63%, a clean sheet for either side at 37%.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Porto vs PSV?

Three or more goals: 63%; two or fewer: 37%.

What time does FC Porto vs PSV kick off?

Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 20:00 BST in the UK.

Where can I see the FC Porto vs PSV result?

On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.

Tips in the same markets

Same day in the UEFA Champions League

Daily predictions

Predictions for Tue 20 Oct 2026