Stade Brestois 29 vs OGC Nice prediction, odds and stats — 23 October 2026
Ligue 1 WAT Matchday 8
Updated WAT
Friday brings Stade Brestois 29 against OGC Nice in the Ligue 1, at 19:45 WAT. Over their last few matches Brest lost 0 and Nice lost 1 (2 and 2 games).
Our headline pick
Over 1.5 goals
- Probability
- 76%
- Fair odds
- 1.32
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
BrestDrawNice
Match analysis
Defensively Brest let in 1.43 a game and Nice 1.29; at the other end they score 1.86 and 0.86. Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total.
At 76%, Over 1.5 goals is the clearest edge over the league's usual pattern in this fixture (fair odds 1.32).
No pick is certain: 24% of the time this outcome does not happen on our numbers.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Brest to win 43% · fair odds 2.32 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 93% · fair odds 1.08 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 87% · fair odds 1.15 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Brest or Nice 73% · fair odds 1.37 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 76% · fair odds 1.32 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 57% · fair odds 1.76 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 73% · fair odds 1.38 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 54% · fair odds 1.86 Confidence: Medium |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Stade Brestois 29 to win at 43%. Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.69 – 0.97 OGC Nice (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1579 vs 1563). The betting market is less positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 93%. Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.69 – 0.97 OGC Nice (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 87%. Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.69 – 0.97 OGC Nice (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Stade Brestois 29 or OGC Nice at 73%. Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.69 – 0.97 OGC Nice (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1579 vs 1563). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.69 – 0.97 OGC Nice (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 57%. Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.69 – 0.97 OGC Nice (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 73%. Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.69 – 0.97 OGC Nice (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 54%. Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.69 – 0.97 OGC Nice (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Brest | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 13th |
| Points (played) | 9 (7) | 8 (7) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.86 | 0.86 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.29 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 10 | |
| 9 |
|
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +4 | 9 | |
| 10 |
|
7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 9 | |
| 11 |
|
7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 | |
| 12 |
|
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 | |
| 13 |
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | |
| 14 |
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 | |
| 15 |
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Related matches
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Go Ahead to win 52% Confidence: Medium -
Stuttgart vs M'gladbach
Stuttgart to win 72% Confidence: High -
Torino vs Monza
Torino or draw 74% Confidence: High -
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham
Draw or Nottingham 71% -
Alavés vs Málaga
Alavés or draw 83% Confidence: High -
Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Both teams to score: Yes 63% Confidence: High
Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Stade Brestois 29 vs OGC Nice?
Over 1.5 goals at 76% (fair odds 1.32). Match result: Brest 43%, draw 27%, Nice 30%.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs OGC Nice?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 54%, a clean sheet for either side at 46%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Stade Brestois 29 vs OGC Nice?
Three or more goals: 57%; two or fewer: 43%.
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs OGC Nice kick off?
Friday 23 October 2026 at 19:45 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 19:45 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Stade Brestois 29 vs OGC Nice result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.