VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction, odds and stats — 23 October 2026
Bundesliga WAT Matchday 7
Updated WAT
Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to face VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, kicking off Friday 23 October at 19:30 WAT. Stuttgart have 1 wins in their last 2, M'gladbach 0 in their last 2.
Our headline pick
Stuttgart to win
- Probability
- 72%
- Fair odds
- 1.39
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
StuttgartDrawM'gladbach
Match analysis
League scoring rates: Stuttgart 1.33/1.67, M'gladbach 1.33/3.33 (scored/conceded per game). Our model expects about 4.1 goals in total.
We lean towards Stuttgart to win: 72% on our numbers, or 1.39 as fair odds.
With 28% on the other side, losing runs happen even when the model is right on average.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Stuttgart to win 72% · fair odds 1.39 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 96% · fair odds 1.04 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 75% · fair odds 1.33 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Stuttgart or draw 87% · fair odds 1.15 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 87% · fair odds 1.14 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 77% · fair odds 1.29 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 52% · fair odds 1.93 Confidence: Medium |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 61% · fair odds 1.64 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates VfB Stuttgart to win at 72%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.84 – 1.06 Borussia Mönchengladbach (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour VfB Stuttgart (1681 vs 1502). The betting market view is broadly in line with our numbers.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.84 – 1.06 Borussia Mönchengladbach (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 75%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.84 – 1.06 Borussia Mönchengladbach (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates VfB Stuttgart or draw at 87%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.84 – 1.06 Borussia Mönchengladbach (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour VfB Stuttgart (1681 vs 1502). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 87%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.84 – 1.06 Borussia Mönchengladbach (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 77%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.84 – 1.06 Borussia Mönchengladbach (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. The betting market view is broadly in line with our numbers.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 52%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.84 – 1.06 Borussia Mönchengladbach (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. The betting market view is broadly in line with our numbers.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 61%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.84 – 1.06 Borussia Mönchengladbach (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Stuttgart | M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 18th |
| Points (played) | 6 (6) | 0 (6) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 |
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 | |
| 12 |
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 | |
| 13 |
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 | |
| 14 |
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 | |
| 15 |
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 | |
| 16 |
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 | |
| 17 |
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -12 | 5 | |
| 18 |
|
6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Stuttgart vs M'gladbach head to head
Related matches
-
Go Ahead vs Telstar
Go Ahead to win 52% Confidence: Medium -
Torino vs Monza
Torino or draw 74% Confidence: High -
Brest vs Nice
Over 1.5 goals 76% Confidence: High -
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham
Draw or Nottingham 71% -
Alavés vs Málaga
Alavés or draw 83% Confidence: High -
Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Both teams to score: Yes 63% Confidence: High
Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Stuttgart to win at 72% (fair odds 1.39). Match result: Stuttgart 72%, draw 15%, M'gladbach 13%.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 61%, a clean sheet for either side at 39%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Three or more goals: 77%; two or fewer: 23%.
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Friday 23 October 2026 at 19:30 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 19:30 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.