Torino FC vs AC Monza prediction, odds and stats — 23 October 2026
Serie A WAT Matchday 8
Updated WAT
Our Serie A preview: Torino FC play AC Monza on Friday 23 October 2026, 19:45 WAT. Torino have 2 wins in their last 2, Monza 1 in their last 2.
Our headline pick
Torino or draw
- Probability
- 74%
- Fair odds
- 1.36
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
TorinoDrawMonza
Match analysis
Torino score 1.43 and concede 1.29 per game; Monza score 1.86 and concede 2.14. Our model expects about 2.6 goals in total.
Torino or draw leads our markets at an estimated 74%, fair odds 1.36.
With 26% on the other side, losing runs happen even when the model is right on average.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Torino to win 45% · fair odds 2.22 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 95% · fair odds 1.05 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 79% · fair odds 1.27 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Torino or draw 74% · fair odds 1.36 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 85% · fair odds 1.18 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Under 2.5 goals 51% · fair odds 1.96 Confidence: Medium |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 61% · fair odds 1.65 Confidence: Medium |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 62% · fair odds 1.60 Confidence: High Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Torino FC to win at 45%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.98 – 1.50 AC Monza (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Torino FC (1580 vs 1550). The betting market view is broadly in line with our numbers.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 95%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.98 – 1.50 AC Monza (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 79%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.98 – 1.50 AC Monza (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Torino FC or draw at 74%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.98 – 1.50 AC Monza (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Torino FC (1580 vs 1550). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 85%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.98 – 1.50 AC Monza (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 51%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.98 – 1.50 AC Monza (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 61%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.98 – 1.50 AC Monza (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 62%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.98 – 1.50 AC Monza (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Torino | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 14th |
| Points (played) | 10 (7) | 7 (7) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.43 | 1.86 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.29 | 2.14 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 | |
| 9 |
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 10 | |
| 10 |
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 10 | |
| 11 |
|
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 | |
| 12 |
|
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 | |
| 13 |
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 | |
| 14 |
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 | |
| 15 |
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 | |
| 16 |
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Related matches
-
Go Ahead vs Telstar
Go Ahead to win 52% Confidence: Medium -
Stuttgart vs M'gladbach
Stuttgart to win 72% Confidence: High -
Brest vs Nice
Over 1.5 goals 76% Confidence: High -
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham
Draw or Nottingham 71% -
Alavés vs Málaga
Alavés or draw 83% Confidence: High -
Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Both teams to score: Yes 63% Confidence: High
Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Torino FC vs AC Monza?
Torino or draw at 74% (fair odds 1.36). Match result: Torino 45%, draw 29%, Monza 26%.
Will both teams score in Torino FC vs AC Monza?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 62%, a clean sheet for either side at 38%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Torino FC vs AC Monza?
Three or more goals: 49%; two or fewer: 51%.
What time does Torino FC vs AC Monza kick off?
Friday 23 October 2026 at 19:45 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 19:45 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Torino FC vs AC Monza result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.