Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF prediction, odds and stats — 23 October 2026
La Liga WAT Matchday 10
Updated WAT
The La Liga meeting of Deportivo Alavés and Málaga CF kicks off on Friday 23 October at 20:00 WAT. Alavés drew 0 of their last 2 and Málaga 0 of theirs, with 0 and 0 wins respectively.
Our headline pick
Alavés or draw
- Probability
- 83%
- Fair odds
- 1.21
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
AlavésDrawMálaga
Match analysis
Alavés games average 2.55 goals and Málaga games 2.67. Our model expects about 2.5 goals in total.
The selection our model rates most informative is Alavés or draw (83%); a price above 1.21 would beat our fair odds.
Risk note: a 83% estimate still leaves a 17% chance of Alavés or draw failing.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Alavés to win 57% · fair odds 1.75 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 93% · fair odds 1.07 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 87% · fair odds 1.15 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Alavés or draw 83% · fair odds 1.21 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 76% · fair odds 1.32 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Under 2.5 goals 55% · fair odds 1.83 Confidence: Medium |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 72% · fair odds 1.38 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 52% · fair odds 1.94 Confidence: Medium |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Deportivo Alavés to win at 57%. Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés 1.94 – 0.74 Málaga CF (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Deportivo Alavés (1546 vs 1515). The betting market is less positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 93%. Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés 1.94 – 0.74 Málaga CF (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 87%. Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés 1.94 – 0.74 Málaga CF (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Deportivo Alavés or draw at 83%. Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés 1.94 – 0.74 Málaga CF (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Deportivo Alavés (1546 vs 1515). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés 1.94 – 0.74 Málaga CF (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 55%. Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés 1.94 – 0.74 Málaga CF (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 72%. Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés 1.94 – 0.74 Málaga CF (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 52%. Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés 1.94 – 0.74 Málaga CF (most likely score 2-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Alavés | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 20th |
| Points (played) | 11 (9) | 4 (9) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.44 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.11 | 2.00 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D0 L1 | – |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |
|
9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 | |
| 6 |
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 | |
| 7 |
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 11 | |
| 8 |
|
9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 11 | |
| 9 |
|
9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 | |
| 18 |
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 | |
| 19 |
|
9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 | |
| 20 |
|
9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Related matches
-
Go Ahead vs Telstar
Go Ahead to win 52% Confidence: Medium -
Stuttgart vs M'gladbach
Stuttgart to win 72% Confidence: High -
Torino vs Monza
Torino or draw 74% Confidence: High -
Brest vs Nice
Over 1.5 goals 76% Confidence: High -
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham
Draw or Nottingham 71% -
Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Both teams to score: Yes 63% Confidence: High
Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF?
Alavés or draw at 83% (fair odds 1.21). Match result: Alavés 57%, draw 26%, Málaga 17%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 52%, a clean sheet for either side at 48%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF?
Three or more goals: 45%; two or fewer: 55%.
What time does Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF kick off?
Friday 23 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 20:00 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.