Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo prediction, odds and stats — 23 October 2026
Primeira Liga WAT Matchday 9
Updated WAT
Our Primeira Liga preview: Vitória SC play CS Marítimo on Friday 23 October 2026, 20:45 WAT. Vitória SC drew 0 of their last 1 and Marítimo 0 of theirs, with 0 and 0 wins respectively.
Our headline pick
Vitória SC or draw
- Probability
- 76%
- Fair odds
- 1.31
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
Vitória SCDrawMarítimo
Match analysis
Vitória SC score 0.63 and concede 1.25 per game; Marítimo score 1.13 and concede 1.75. Our model expects about 2.2 goals in total.
We lean towards Vitória SC or draw: 76% on our numbers, or 1.31 as fair odds.
Risk note: a 76% estimate still leaves a 24% chance of Vitória SC or draw failing.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Vitória SC to win 47% · fair odds 2.12 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 92% · fair odds 1.09 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 91% · fair odds 1.10 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Vitória SC or draw 76% · fair odds 1.31 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 71% · fair odds 1.41 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Under 2.5 goals 61% · fair odds 1.64 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 77% · fair odds 1.31 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 51% · fair odds 1.98 Confidence: Medium |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Vitória SC to win at 47%. Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.12 – 0.96 CS Marítimo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Vitória SC (1501 vs 1421). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 92%. Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.12 – 0.96 CS Marítimo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 91%. Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.12 – 0.96 CS Marítimo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Vitória SC or draw at 76%. Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.12 – 0.96 CS Marítimo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Vitória SC (1501 vs 1421). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.12 – 0.96 CS Marítimo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 61%. Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.12 – 0.96 CS Marítimo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 77%. Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.12 – 0.96 CS Marítimo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 51%. Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.12 – 0.96 CS Marítimo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Vitória SC | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 11th |
| Points (played) | 5 (8) | 8 (8) |
| Goals scored per game | 0.63 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |
|
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 | |
| 10 |
|
8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 | |
| 11 |
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 | |
| 12 |
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 | No recent games |
| 13 |
|
8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 | |
| 14 |
|
8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 | |
| 15 |
|
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 | |
| 16 |
|
8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 | |
| 17 |
|
8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo head to head
Related matches
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Torino vs Monza
Torino or draw 74% Confidence: High -
Brest vs Nice
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Ipswich Town vs Nottingham
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Alavés vs Málaga
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo?
Vitória SC or draw at 76% (fair odds 1.31). Match result: Vitória SC 47%, draw 29%, Marítimo 24%.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 51%, a clean sheet for either side at 49%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo?
Three or more goals: 39%; two or fewer: 61%.
What time does Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo kick off?
Friday 23 October 2026 at 20:45 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 20:45 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.