VfB Stuttgart vs Club Atlético de Madrid prediction, odds and stats — 20 October 2026
UEFA Champions League WAT Matchday 3
Updated WAT
VfB Stuttgart against Club Atlético de Madrid is a UEFA Champions League fixture scheduled for Tuesday 20 October at 20:00 WAT. On recent form Stuttgart took 6 of 9 points and Atleti 6 of 6.
Our headline pick
Draw or Atleti
- Probability
- 73%
- Fair odds
- 1.36
- Confidence
- –
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
StuttgartDrawAtleti
Match analysis
The goals line points to roughly 3.7 goals between Stuttgart and Atleti.
Headline view: Draw or Atleti, rated 73% with fair odds of 1.36.
Even at 73%, this pick loses about 3 times in 10 (27%).
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Atleti to win 49% · fair odds 2.06 Confidence: Medium |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 96% · fair odds 1.05 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 78% · fair odds 1.28 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Stuttgart or Atleti 75% · fair odds 1.33 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 85% · fair odds 1.17 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 71% · fair odds 1.41 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 61% · fair odds 1.65 Confidence: High |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 63% · fair odds 1.58 Confidence: High Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Club Atlético de Madrid to win at 49%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.80 – 1.72 Club Atlético de Madrid (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. Elo ratings favour Club Atlético de Madrid (1681 vs 1724). The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.80 – 1.72 Club Atlético de Madrid (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 78%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.80 – 1.72 Club Atlético de Madrid (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates VfB Stuttgart or Club Atlético de Madrid at 75%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.80 – 1.72 Club Atlético de Madrid (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. Elo ratings favour Club Atlético de Madrid (1681 vs 1724). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 85%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.80 – 1.72 Club Atlético de Madrid (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.80 – 1.72 Club Atlético de Madrid (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. The betting market view is broadly in line with our numbers.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 61%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.80 – 1.72 Club Atlético de Madrid (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. The betting market view is broadly in line with our numbers.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 63%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.80 – 1.72 Club Atlético de Madrid (most likely score 1-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Stuttgart | Atleti |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points (played) | – | – |
| Goals scored per game | – | – |
| Goals conceded per game | – | – |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Stuttgart vs Atleti head to head
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Club Atlético de Madrid?
Draw or Atleti at 73% (fair odds 1.36). Match result: Stuttgart 27%, draw 25%, Atleti 49%.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Club Atlético de Madrid?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 63%, a clean sheet for either side at 37%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in VfB Stuttgart vs Club Atlético de Madrid?
Three or more goals: 71%; two or fewer: 29%.
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Club Atlético de Madrid kick off?
Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 20:00 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the VfB Stuttgart vs Club Atlético de Madrid result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.