SSC Napoli vs FK Bodø/Glimt prediction, odds and stats — 20 October 2026
UEFA Champions League WAT Matchday 3
Updated WAT
The UEFA Champions League meeting of SSC Napoli and FK Bodø/Glimt kicks off on Tuesday 20 October at 20:00 WAT. Napoli come in with 3 points from their last 3 games, Bodø/Glimt with 3 from 1.
Our headline pick
Napoli or draw
- Probability
- 81%
- Fair odds
- 1.24
- Confidence
- Confidence: Low
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin. Limited data
Match result probabilities
NapoliDrawBodø/Glimt
Match analysis
On our numbers this game should produce about 3.3 goals (over 2.5: 63%).
We lean towards Napoli or draw: 81% on our numbers, or 1.24 as fair odds.
The 19% chance against Napoli or draw is real, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. One side has limited data, so treat the number with extra caution.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Napoli to win 56% · fair odds 1.79 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 96% · fair odds 1.04 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 76% · fair odds 1.31 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Double chance |
|
Napoli or draw 81% · fair odds 1.24 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 86% · fair odds 1.16 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 63% · fair odds 1.59 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 60% · fair odds 1.66 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 58% · fair odds 1.74 Confidence: Low Limited data |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates SSC Napoli to win at 56%. Expected goals: SSC Napoli 2.74 – 0.95 FK Bodø/Glimt (most likely score 2-0). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. Elo ratings favour SSC Napoli (1717 vs 1511). The betting market is less positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: SSC Napoli 2.74 – 0.95 FK Bodø/Glimt (most likely score 2-0). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: SSC Napoli 2.74 – 0.95 FK Bodø/Glimt (most likely score 2-0). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates SSC Napoli or draw at 81%. Expected goals: SSC Napoli 2.74 – 0.95 FK Bodø/Glimt (most likely score 2-0). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. Elo ratings favour SSC Napoli (1717 vs 1511). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 86%. Expected goals: SSC Napoli 2.74 – 0.95 FK Bodø/Glimt (most likely score 2-0). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 63%. Expected goals: SSC Napoli 2.74 – 0.95 FK Bodø/Glimt (most likely score 2-0). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. The betting market is less positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 60%. Expected goals: SSC Napoli 2.74 – 0.95 FK Bodø/Glimt (most likely score 2-0). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 58%. Expected goals: SSC Napoli 2.74 – 0.95 FK Bodø/Glimt (most likely score 2-0). One side has little or no domestic data in our database, so this estimate leans on a country-strength prior and carries extra uncertainty. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Napoli | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points (played) | – | – |
| Goals scored per game | – | – |
| Goals conceded per game | – | – |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt head to head
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for SSC Napoli vs FK Bodø/Glimt?
Napoli or draw at 81% (fair odds 1.24). Match result: Napoli 56%, draw 25%, Bodø/Glimt 19%.
Will both teams score in SSC Napoli vs FK Bodø/Glimt?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 58%, a clean sheet for either side at 42%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in SSC Napoli vs FK Bodø/Glimt?
Three or more goals: 63%; two or fewer: 37%.
What time does SSC Napoli vs FK Bodø/Glimt kick off?
Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 20:00 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the SSC Napoli vs FK Bodø/Glimt result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.