Liverpool FC vs Villarreal CF prediction, odds and stats — 20 October 2026
UEFA Champions League WAT Matchday 3
Updated WAT
Tuesday brings Liverpool FC against Villarreal CF in the UEFA Champions League, at 20:00 WAT. On recent form Liverpool took 6 of 9 points and Villarreal 1 of 6.
Our headline pick
Liverpool to win
- Probability
- 64%
- Fair odds
- 1.55
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
LiverpoolDrawVillarreal
Match analysis
A total near 3.7 goals is what our probabilities imply for Liverpool vs Villarreal.
Our model's strongest angle here is Liverpool to win at 64%; anything shorter than 1.55 offers less than fair value.
Even at 64%, this pick loses about 4 times in 10 (36%).
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Liverpool to win 64% · fair odds 1.55 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 96% · fair odds 1.04 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 75% · fair odds 1.33 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Liverpool or draw 85% · fair odds 1.18 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 87% · fair odds 1.15 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 71% · fair odds 1.41 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 59% · fair odds 1.70 Confidence: Medium |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 64% · fair odds 1.57 Confidence: High Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Liverpool FC to win at 64%. Expected goals: Liverpool FC 2.23 – 1.61 Villarreal CF (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. Elo ratings favour Liverpool FC (1733 vs 1675). The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: Liverpool FC 2.23 – 1.61 Villarreal CF (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 75%. Expected goals: Liverpool FC 2.23 – 1.61 Villarreal CF (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Liverpool FC or draw at 85%. Expected goals: Liverpool FC 2.23 – 1.61 Villarreal CF (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. Elo ratings favour Liverpool FC (1733 vs 1675). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 87%. Expected goals: Liverpool FC 2.23 – 1.61 Villarreal CF (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: Liverpool FC 2.23 – 1.61 Villarreal CF (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. The betting market is less positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 59%. Expected goals: Liverpool FC 2.23 – 1.61 Villarreal CF (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 64%. Expected goals: Liverpool FC 2.23 – 1.61 Villarreal CF (most likely score 2-1). Team strengths come from each side's domestic league, adjusted for league strength. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Liverpool | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points (played) | – | – |
| Goals scored per game | – | – |
| Goals conceded per game | – | – |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Liverpool vs Villarreal head to head
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Liverpool FC vs Villarreal CF?
Liverpool to win at 64% (fair odds 1.55). Match result: Liverpool 64%, draw 20%, Villarreal 15%.
Will both teams score in Liverpool FC vs Villarreal CF?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 64%, a clean sheet for either side at 36%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Liverpool FC vs Villarreal CF?
Three or more goals: 71%; two or fewer: 29%.
What time does Liverpool FC vs Villarreal CF kick off?
Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 20:00 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Liverpool FC vs Villarreal CF result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.