Mirassol FC vs São Paulo FC prediction, odds and stats — 24 October 2026
Brasileirão Série A WAT Matchday 32
Updated WAT
In the Brasileirão Série A, Mirassol FC take on São Paulo FC on Saturday 24 October at 20:30 WAT. Over their last few matches Mirassol lost 1 and São Paulo lost 0 (2 and 2 games).
Our headline pick
Under 2.5 goals
- Probability
- 65%
- Fair odds
- 1.55
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
MirassolDrawSão Paulo
Match analysis
Goals trend: São Paulo average 1.16 for and 1.13 against, Mirassol 1.16 for and 1.42 against. Our model expects about 2.1 goals in total.
For this match the pick that stands out is Under 2.5 goals (65%, fair odds 1.55).
No pick is certain: 35% of the time this outcome does not happen on our numbers.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Mirassol to win 45% · fair odds 2.22 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 91% · fair odds 1.10 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 92% · fair odds 1.08 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Mirassol or draw 75% · fair odds 1.34 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 69% · fair odds 1.45 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Under 2.5 goals 65% · fair odds 1.55 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 79% · fair odds 1.27 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: No 51% · fair odds 1.96 Confidence: Medium |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Mirassol FC to win at 45%. Expected goals: Mirassol FC 1.10 – 0.85 São Paulo FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1547 vs 1528). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 91%. Expected goals: Mirassol FC 1.10 – 0.85 São Paulo FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 92%. Expected goals: Mirassol FC 1.10 – 0.85 São Paulo FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Mirassol FC or draw at 75%. Expected goals: Mirassol FC 1.10 – 0.85 São Paulo FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1547 vs 1528). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 69%. Expected goals: Mirassol FC 1.10 – 0.85 São Paulo FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 65%. Expected goals: Mirassol FC 1.10 – 0.85 São Paulo FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 79%. Expected goals: Mirassol FC 1.10 – 0.85 São Paulo FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates at least one clean sheet at 51%. Expected goals: Mirassol FC 1.10 – 0.85 São Paulo FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Mirassol | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 9th |
| Points (played) | 36 (31) | 42 (31) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.42 | 1.13 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | – |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |
|
31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 | |
| 8 |
|
31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 | |
| 9 |
|
31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | +1 | 42 | |
| 10 |
|
31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | +3 | 41 | |
| 11 |
|
31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 39 | |
| 12 |
|
31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 | |
| 13 |
|
31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -11 | 37 | |
| 14 |
|
31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 | |
| 15 |
|
30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 | |
| 16 |
|
31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 33 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Mirassol FC vs São Paulo FC?
Under 2.5 goals at 65% (fair odds 1.55). Match result: Mirassol 45%, draw 30%, São Paulo 25%.
Will both teams score in Mirassol FC vs São Paulo FC?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 49%, a clean sheet for either side at 51%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mirassol FC vs São Paulo FC?
Three or more goals: 35%; two or fewer: 65%.
What time does Mirassol FC vs São Paulo FC kick off?
Saturday 24 October 2026 at 20:30 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 20:30 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Mirassol FC vs São Paulo FC result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.
