EC Vitória vs CA Paranaense prediction, odds and stats — 24 October 2026
Brasileirão Série A WAT Matchday 32
Updated WAT
EC Vitória host CA Paranaense in the Brasileirão Série A on Saturday 24 October at 20:30 WAT. Over their last few matches Vitória lost 1 and Paranaense lost 1 (2 and 2 games).
Our headline pick
Both teams to score: Yes
- Probability
- 61%
- Fair odds
- 1.65
- Confidence
- Confidence: Medium
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
VitóriaDrawParanaense
Match analysis
With 1.10 goals a game at one end and 1.19 conceded by Paranaense at the other, Vitória have a scoring benchmark to aim at. Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total.
Headline view: Both teams to score: Yes, rated 61% with fair odds of 1.65.
No pick is certain: 39% of the time this outcome does not happen on our numbers.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Paranaense to win 38% · fair odds 2.62 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 95% · fair odds 1.05 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 84% · fair odds 1.18 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Vitória or Paranaense 71% · fair odds 1.40 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 80% · fair odds 1.25 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 58% · fair odds 1.73 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 67% · fair odds 1.50 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 61% · fair odds 1.65 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates CA Paranaense to win at 38%. Expected goals: EC Vitória 1.44 – 1.52 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour CA Paranaense (1490 vs 1559). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 95%. Expected goals: EC Vitória 1.44 – 1.52 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 84%. Expected goals: EC Vitória 1.44 – 1.52 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates EC Vitória or CA Paranaense at 71%. Expected goals: EC Vitória 1.44 – 1.52 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour CA Paranaense (1490 vs 1559). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 80%. Expected goals: EC Vitória 1.44 – 1.52 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 58%. Expected goals: EC Vitória 1.44 – 1.52 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 67%. Expected goals: EC Vitória 1.44 – 1.52 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 61%. Expected goals: EC Vitória 1.44 – 1.52 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Vitória | Paranaense |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 3rd |
| Points (played) | 37 (31) | 53 (31) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.10 | 1.58 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.19 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | Away: W1 D0 L0 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 | |
| 2 |
|
31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | +32 | 66 | |
| 3 |
|
31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | +12 | 53 | |
| 4 |
|
31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 | |
| 5 |
|
31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | +4 | 51 | |
| 11 |
|
31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 39 | |
| 12 |
|
31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 | |
| 13 |
|
31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -11 | 37 | |
| 14 |
|
31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 | |
| 15 |
|
30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for EC Vitória vs CA Paranaense?
Both teams to score: Yes at 61% (fair odds 1.65). Match result: Vitória 33%, draw 29%, Paranaense 38%.
Will both teams score in EC Vitória vs CA Paranaense?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 61%, a clean sheet for either side at 39%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in EC Vitória vs CA Paranaense?
Three or more goals: 58%; two or fewer: 42%.
What time does EC Vitória vs CA Paranaense kick off?
Saturday 24 October 2026 at 20:30 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 20:30 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the EC Vitória vs CA Paranaense result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.
