Chapecoense AF vs Fluminense FC prediction, odds and stats — 24 October 2026
Brasileirão Série A WAT Matchday 32
Updated WAT
Chapecoense AF welcome Fluminense FC on Saturday 24 October at 23:30 WAT, with Brasileirão Série A points at stake. Form guide: Chapecoense L-L and Fluminense L-L, most recent result first.
Our headline pick
Fluminense to win
- Probability
- 64%
- Fair odds
- 1.56
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
ChapecoenseDrawFluminense
Match analysis
The attacking numbers read 1.00 goals a game for Chapecoense and 1.58 for Fluminense, with 2.07 and 1.26 conceded. Our model expects about 3.2 goals in total.
At 64%, Fluminense to win is the clearest edge over the league's usual pattern in this fixture (fair odds 1.56).
Keep stakes small: the model gives the other outcomes a combined 36%.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Fluminense to win 64% · fair odds 1.56 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 95% · fair odds 1.05 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 83% · fair odds 1.20 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Draw or Fluminense 88% · fair odds 1.14 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 81% · fair odds 1.23 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Over 2.5 goals 61% · fair odds 1.64 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 65% · fair odds 1.53 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 56% · fair odds 1.77 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Fluminense FC to win at 64%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 0.98 – 2.09 Fluminense FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Fluminense FC (1340 vs 1600). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 95%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 0.98 – 2.09 Fluminense FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 83%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 0.98 – 2.09 Fluminense FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Fluminense FC or draw at 88%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 0.98 – 2.09 Fluminense FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Fluminense FC (1340 vs 1600). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 81%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 0.98 – 2.09 Fluminense FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 61%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 0.98 – 2.09 Fluminense FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 65%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 0.98 – 2.09 Fluminense FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 56%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 0.98 – 2.09 Fluminense FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Chapecoense | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 4th |
| Points (played) | 18 (30) | 51 (31) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.00 | 1.58 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.07 | 1.26 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D0 L1 | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
|
31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | +32 | 66 | |
| 3 |
|
31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | +12 | 53 | |
| 4 |
|
31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 | |
| 5 |
|
31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | +4 | 51 | |
| 6 |
|
31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 | |
| 18 |
|
31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 | |
| 19 |
|
31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -15 | 26 | |
| 20 |
|
30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Chapecoense AF vs Fluminense FC?
Fluminense to win at 64% (fair odds 1.56). Match result: Chapecoense 12%, draw 23%, Fluminense 64%.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense AF vs Fluminense FC?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 56%, a clean sheet for either side at 44%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Chapecoense AF vs Fluminense FC?
Three or more goals: 61%; two or fewer: 39%.
What time does Chapecoense AF vs Fluminense FC kick off?
Saturday 24 October 2026 at 23:30 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 23:30 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Chapecoense AF vs Fluminense FC result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.
