CR Vasco da Gama vs SC Corinthians Paulista prediction, odds and stats — 24 October 2026
Brasileirão Série A WAT Matchday 32
Updated WAT
SC Corinthians Paulista travel to face CR Vasco da Gama in the Brasileirão Série A, kicking off Saturday 24 October at 22:30 WAT. Over their last few matches Vasco da Gama lost 1 and Corinthians lost 1 (2 and 2 games).
Our headline pick
Under 2.5 goals
- Probability
- 56%
- Fair odds
- 1.79
- Confidence
- Confidence: Medium
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
Vasco da GamaDrawCorinthians
Match analysis
League scoring rates: Vasco da Gama 1.20/1.43, Corinthians 1.03/1.26 (scored/conceded per game). Our model expects about 2.4 goals in total.
For this match the pick that stands out is Under 2.5 goals (56%, fair odds 1.79).
No pick is certain: 44% of the time this outcome does not happen on our numbers.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Vasco da Gama to win 50% · fair odds 2.02 Confidence: Medium |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 92% · fair odds 1.08 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 88% · fair odds 1.13 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Vasco da Gama or draw 78% · fair odds 1.29 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 74% · fair odds 1.35 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Under 2.5 goals 56% · fair odds 1.79 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 75% · fair odds 1.33 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 52% · fair odds 1.94 Confidence: Medium |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates CR Vasco da Gama to win at 50%. Expected goals: CR Vasco da Gama 1.61 – 0.84 SC Corinthians Paulista (most likely score 1-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1493 vs 1499). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 92%. Expected goals: CR Vasco da Gama 1.61 – 0.84 SC Corinthians Paulista (most likely score 1-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 88%. Expected goals: CR Vasco da Gama 1.61 – 0.84 SC Corinthians Paulista (most likely score 1-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates CR Vasco da Gama or draw at 78%. Expected goals: CR Vasco da Gama 1.61 – 0.84 SC Corinthians Paulista (most likely score 1-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1493 vs 1499). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 74%. Expected goals: CR Vasco da Gama 1.61 – 0.84 SC Corinthians Paulista (most likely score 1-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 56%. Expected goals: CR Vasco da Gama 1.61 – 0.84 SC Corinthians Paulista (most likely score 1-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 75%. Expected goals: CR Vasco da Gama 1.61 – 0.84 SC Corinthians Paulista (most likely score 1-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 52%. Expected goals: CR Vasco da Gama 1.61 – 0.84 SC Corinthians Paulista (most likely score 1-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Vasco da Gama | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 16th |
| Points (played) | 35 (30) | 33 (31) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.26 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D1 L0 | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 |
|
31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -11 | 37 | |
| 14 |
|
31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 | |
| 15 |
|
30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 | |
| 16 |
|
31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 33 | |
| 17 |
|
31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -7 | 32 | |
| 18 |
|
31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for CR Vasco da Gama vs SC Corinthians Paulista?
Under 2.5 goals at 56% (fair odds 1.79). Match result: Vasco da Gama 50%, draw 28%, Corinthians 22%.
Will both teams score in CR Vasco da Gama vs SC Corinthians Paulista?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 52%, a clean sheet for either side at 48%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in CR Vasco da Gama vs SC Corinthians Paulista?
Three or more goals: 44%; two or fewer: 56%.
What time does CR Vasco da Gama vs SC Corinthians Paulista kick off?
Saturday 24 October 2026 at 22:30 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 22:30 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the CR Vasco da Gama vs SC Corinthians Paulista result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.
