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Braga vs Gil Vicente

Sporting Clube de Braga vs Gil Vicente FC result, prediction review and stats — 19 October 2026

Primeira Liga Mon 19 Oct 2026 20:15 WAT Matchday 2

Updated 20 Oct 2026, 16:45 WAT

Sporting Clube de Braga welcome Gil Vicente FC on Monday 19 October at 20:15 WAT, with Primeira Liga points at stake. Braga come in with 0 points from their last 1 games, Gil Vicente with 3 from 1.

Braga

1 - 2 Full time (HT 1-0)

Gil Vicente

Our headline pick

Braga or draw

Probability: 81%
Fair odds: 1.24
Confidence: Confidence: High

Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin. Lost

Match result probabilities

BragaDrawGil Vicente

Match analysis

The attacking numbers read 1.13 goals a game for Braga and 1.00 for Gil Vicente, with 1.25 and 0.75 conceded. Our model expects about 2.0 goals in total.

Gil Vicente have won 1 of 1 meetings with Braga, who have won 0.

Result & prediction review

Sporting Clube de Braga 1-2 Gil Vicente FC. It was 1-0 at half-time. 4 of our 8 market predictions landed (over, Over 1.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals, under). The headline pick, Braga or draw, did not land. The final score was not among our three most likely scorelines (0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 0-1 and 2-0).

How each prediction did

Our probabilities by market for Braga vs Gil Vicente
Market	Probabilities	Our pick
Match result	Braga 50.4% Draw 30.2% Gil Vicente 19.4%	Braga to win 50% · fair odds 1.98 Confidence: Medium Lost
Over/Under 0.5 goals	over 88.8% under 11.2%	over 89% · fair odds 1.13 Confidence: High Won
Over/Under 4.5 goals	under 93.0% over 7.0%	under 93% · fair odds 1.08 Confidence: High Won
Double chance	1X 80.7% 12 69.8% X2 49.6%	Braga or draw 81% · fair odds 1.24 Confidence: High Lost
Over/Under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 65.3% Under 1.5 34.7%	Over 1.5 goals 65% · fair odds 1.53 Confidence: High Won
Over/Under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 68.2% Over 2.5 31.9%	Under 2.5 goals 68% · fair odds 1.47 Confidence: High Lost
Over/Under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 82.9% Over 3.5 17.1%	Under 3.5 goals 83% · fair odds 1.21 Confidence: High Won
Both teams to score	No 55.5% Yes 44.5%	Both teams to score: No 56% · fair odds 1.80 Confidence: Medium Lost
Correct score (top 3)	0-0 18.2% 1-0 15.0% 1-1 14.3%

Why the model leans this way, market by market

Match result: Our model rates Sporting Clube de Braga to win at 50%. Expected goals: Sporting Clube de Braga 0.94 – 0.83 Gil Vicente FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Sporting Clube de Braga (1659 vs 1528). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 0.5 goals: Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 89%. Expected goals: Sporting Clube de Braga 0.94 – 0.83 Gil Vicente FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 4.5 goals: Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 93%. Expected goals: Sporting Clube de Braga 0.94 – 0.83 Gil Vicente FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Double chance: Our model rates Sporting Clube de Braga or draw at 81%. Expected goals: Sporting Clube de Braga 0.94 – 0.83 Gil Vicente FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Sporting Clube de Braga (1659 vs 1528). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 1.5 goals: Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 65%. Expected goals: Sporting Clube de Braga 0.94 – 0.83 Gil Vicente FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 68%. Expected goals: Sporting Clube de Braga 0.94 – 0.83 Gil Vicente FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 3.5 goals: Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 83%. Expected goals: Sporting Clube de Braga 0.94 – 0.83 Gil Vicente FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Our model rates at least one clean sheet at 56%. Expected goals: Sporting Clube de Braga 0.94 – 0.83 Gil Vicente FC (most likely score 0-0). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.

Key stats

Key stats for Braga vs Gil Vicente
Stat	Braga	Gil Vicente
League position	9th	6th
Points (played)	11 (8)	14 (8)
Goals scored per game	1.13	1.00
Goals conceded per game	1.25	0.75
Home / away record (recent)	Home: W0 D0 L1	Away: W1 D0 L0

Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.

Form (last five, newest first)

Braga

Gil Vicente

Primeira Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
4	CD Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	+8	18
5	FC Arouca	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Gil Vicente	8	4	2	2	+2	14
7	Académico de Viseu FC	8	4	2	2	+1	14
8	Alverca	8	3	2	3	+1	11
9	Braga	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	CF Estrela da Amadora	8	2	4	2	-1	10
11	CS Marítimo	8	2	2	4	-5	8