AC Monza vs Cagliari Calcio result, prediction review and stats — 19 October 2026
Serie A WAT Matchday 7
Updated WAT
AC Monza host Cagliari Calcio in the Serie A on Monday 19 October at 17:30 WAT. Form guide: Monza W-L and Cagliari L-D, most recent result first.
Our headline pick
Over 1.5 goals
- Probability
- 75%
- Fair odds
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Confidence: High
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin. Won
Match result probabilities
MonzaDrawCagliari
Match analysis
With 1.86 goals a game at one end and 1.00 conceded by Cagliari at the other, Monza have a scoring benchmark to aim at. Our model expects about 2.5 goals in total.
Head to head: 1-0-0 from Monza's side over 1 games, averaging 4.0 goals.
Result & prediction review
AC Monza 4-0 Cagliari Calcio. It was 1-0 at half-time. 5 of our 8 market predictions landed (Monza to win, Monza or draw, over, Over 1.5 goals, under). The headline pick, Over 1.5 goals, was correct. The final score was not among our three most likely scorelines (1-1, 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 and 0-0).
How each prediction did
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Monza to win 42% · fair odds 2.38 Confidence: Low Won |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 93% · fair odds 1.08 Confidence: High Won |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 88% · fair odds 1.14 Confidence: High Won |
| Double chance |
|
Monza or draw 71% · fair odds 1.41 Confidence: High Won |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 75% · fair odds 1.33 Confidence: High Won |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Under 2.5 goals 55% · fair odds 1.82 Confidence: Medium Lost |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 73% · fair odds 1.37 Confidence: High Lost |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 53% · fair odds 1.89 Confidence: Medium Lost |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates AC Monza to win at 42%. Expected goals: AC Monza 0.98 – 1.60 Cagliari Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Cagliari Calcio (1535 vs 1566). The betting market is more positive on this outcome than our goals model.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 93%. Expected goals: AC Monza 0.98 – 1.60 Cagliari Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 88%. Expected goals: AC Monza 0.98 – 1.60 Cagliari Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates AC Monza or draw at 71%. Expected goals: AC Monza 0.98 – 1.60 Cagliari Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Cagliari Calcio (1535 vs 1566). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 75%. Expected goals: AC Monza 0.98 – 1.60 Cagliari Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 55%. Expected goals: AC Monza 0.98 – 1.60 Cagliari Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. The betting market view is broadly in line with our numbers.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 73%. Expected goals: AC Monza 0.98 – 1.60 Cagliari Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 53%. Expected goals: AC Monza 0.98 – 1.60 Cagliari Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Key stats
| Stat | Monza | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 7th |
| Points (played) | 7 (7) | 13 (7) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.86 | 0.86 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.14 | 1.00 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |
|
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 | |
| 6 |
|
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 13 | |
| 7 |
|
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 13 | |
| 8 |
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 | |
| 9 |
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 10 | |
| 12 |
|
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 | |
| 13 |
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 | |
| 14 |
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 | |
| 15 |
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 | |
| 16 |
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
Head to head
1 meetings · Monza 1 wins, 0 draws, Cagliari 0 wins
- Monza 4-0 Cagliari
Monza vs Cagliari head to head
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Frequently asked questions
What was the final score of AC Monza vs Cagliari Calcio?
AC Monza 4-0 Cagliari Calcio, played on Monday 19 October 2026.
What is our prediction for AC Monza vs Cagliari Calcio?
Over 1.5 goals at 75% (fair odds 1.33). Match result: Monza 42%, draw 29%, Cagliari 29%.
Will both teams score in AC Monza vs Cagliari Calcio?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 53%, a clean sheet for either side at 47%.
What time does AC Monza vs Cagliari Calcio kick off?
Monday 19 October 2026 at 17:30 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 17:30 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the AC Monza vs Cagliari Calcio result?
On this page: the 4-0 final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.